Daily Forex Forecast 11/28/2012

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By Michael Judge | November 28, 2012 10:18 AM EST

Australian Dollar:
Despite what has been an eventful 24 hour period the response by the Australian dollar has been anything but. Maintaining a recent range of 1.0440 – 1.0480 against its US Counterpart investors still appear reluctant in taking the higher yielding unit above tested resistance levels of 1.05. Whilst European finance minister finally agreed upon a formula which will see Greece receive 34.4 billion-euro worth of loan instalments come December the big question mark within the market still remains whether US Congressman will be able to reach a budget agreement and therefore avoid the potentially devastating fiscal cliff. Meanwhile this morning coming off a two-month peak the Australian dollar opens overall unchanged this morning at 1.0440.

We expect a range today of 1.0410 – 1.0470

New Zealand Dollar
The New Zealand dollar was weighed down by a stronger US Currency overnight after data showed US Consumer confidence rose to a four month high this month. Adding to the pool of better than expected data releases from the world’s largest economy core durable goods orders also climbed in October by the most in five months. After reaching intraday highs of 0.8237 against its US Counterpart the New Zealand dollar fell overnight testing lows around the 82 US Cents mark. Given the kiwi is likely to remain half a cent either side of the critical 0.8200 level in the short-term a clearer broader direction remains hard to call given US Lawmakers are locked in an arm wrestle over the required budget cuts necessary to ensure the 607 billion worth of automatic spending cuts and tax increases are avoided next year. Meanwhile this morning the Kiwi opens weaker currently buying 82.05 US Cents.

We expect a range today of 0.8170 – 0.8230

Great British Pound:
Spot on what was expected overnight UK GDP increased by one percent in the third quarter this year. In the broadest measure of economic activity such results show a comprehensive rebound from the double dip recession experienced earlier in the year. Despite the positive session the Great British Pound has struggled to push on from levels above the 1.60 level. Opening this morning marginally weaker at 1.6018 the Sterling has struggled against a noticeably firmer Greenback. Meanwhile on the cross-rates this morning the Great British Pound opens stronger against both the Australian dollar (1.5335) and the New Zealand dollar (1.9535).

We expect a range today of 1.5300 – 1.5360

Majors:
Global stocks finished flat overnight as concerns over the fast approaching US Fiscal Cliff offset optimism from a deal in Greece designed to ease the debt burden for the highly indebted nation. Firstly in Europe, after three years of trying to get it right finance ministers have agreed to cut the interest payments on loans for a staggering 10 years whilst also approving the first loan instalment of 34.4 billion this December. Whilst Greek PM Antonis Samaras stated today is a time a celebration marking a “new day” for Europe’s most debt-ridden country investors remain sceptical on whether Greece has the necessary discipline to ensure requirements are met. As a result the shared-unit fell overnight as it opens around 40 basis points weaker this morning at a rate of 1.2930. Meanwhile in the US amongst ongoing debt fears the Greenback finished broader stronger well buoyed but a strong Consumer Confidence reading as well as Core Durable goods which comfortably beat expectation. When compared against the Japanese Yen the US Dollar opens stronger currently swapping hands at 82.14.

Data releases

AUD:
Construction Work done q/q

NZD: No data today

JPY:
No data today

GBP: No data today

EUR:
German prelim CPI q/q, M3 Money Supply y/y

USD:
New Home Sales, Crude Oil Inventories

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