Asian Session Notes: 11/26/12

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By mdelapaz | November 26, 2012 1:49 PM EST

Fx Instructor

GBPUSD

Resistance: 1.6041 moderate / 1.6066 minor / 1.6102 minor

Support: 1.6007 minor / 1.5980(84) moderate / 1.5951 minor

Cable has seen a sharp rally Friday ending the day just under the 61.8 Fib of the latest down leg from November 1 highs. Note this may be part of the series of lower highs and lower lows though daily indicators continue to be bullish suggesting a break of 1.6041. We have stochastic crossing up in daily charts within overbought levels while macd is heading up. In the lower time frames we have stochastic crawling overbought areas while macd is rising in 4H charts. In the hourly picture we have a new confluence of buys with stochastic just crossing up and macd’s flat above the signal line. We prefer getting a close above 1.6041 of a buy on dips to the daily EMA’s at 1.5980(84).

USDCHF

Resistance: 0.9314 minor / 0.9342 minor / 0.9379 moderate

Support: 0.9275 moderate / 0.9244 moderate / 0.9214 moderate

The Swiss Franc saw huge gains Friday with USDCHF seeing a big drop while indicators show the daily EMA lines with new dead crosses and stochastic pushing oversold while macd’s are down. Price charts however also face a series of moderate support levels to suggest that the path of least resistance may be for a bounce. From the lower time frames we appear to be bottoming out in 4H charts with stochastic poised to come-off oversold areas while the macd indicator is pointing lower. Hourly charts for their part has a confluence of buys in the works as macd’s bottom out and begin to cross up while stochastic is poised to push into overbought territory. Look for a buy on dips to 0.9275 the first of a series of moderate supports.

EURUSD

Resistance: 1.2991 moderate / 1.3021 moderate / 1.3041 minor

Support: 1.2956 moderate / 1.2900 moderate / 1.2867 minor

Friday saw a big rally in the Euro though election results from the Catalan region is dampening sentiment with a mostly mixed open as the threat of further action by independence groups cast doubts over the Spanish governments ability to managed its debt. Among indicators we continue to have an overbought stochastic while macd’s are on the rise. Given the gap between prices and EMA lines we risk mean reversion developing. In 4H charts we have potentially mixed signals as the stochastic indicator appear poised to come off overbought areas while macd is pointing up. Hourly charts for their part has a confluence of bears. Immediate risk calls for a technical correction with a close under 1.2956 likely to trigger a pullback for 1.2900.

AUDUSD

Resistance: 1.0470 minor / 1.0519 moderate / 1.0545 minor

Support: 1.0451 minor / 1.0424 minor / 1.0396 moderate

Aussy saw a sharp rally Friday to close just below the 14.6 Fib retracement level of our rally from June. Daily indicators are now seeing a confluence of buys with stochastic overbought and macd’s heading up. Note we had a vote of confidence on the currency from the IMF listing the currency as a reserve currency. Intraday we have a confluence of buys in 4H charts with stochastic crawling overbought while macd is heading up though candles have been indecisive after the pre New York surge Friday. Hourly charts for their part has macd pushing higher while we wait for a new bullish crossover out of stochastic. Consider buy stops above 1.0470 or buy limits just above 1.0424. Our immediate objective is a test of the moderate resistance at 1.0519.

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