Daily Forex Forecast 11/26/2012

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By Ian Fowler | November 26, 2012 11:07 AM EST

Australian Dollar:

In what was an overall positive week for the Australian dollar which was supported by extended gains across equity markets as volumes remained thin given the United States celebration of Thanksgiving. With several key players sitting out Friday's session global risk sentiment remained positive following Thursdays better than expected manufacturing read in China. Moving to overnight highs of 1.0471 against its US Counterpart interim support is set to kick in around the 1.0420 mark at least in the short-term. Given the lack of domestic data this week direction is once again likely to be dictated by ongoing debt talks in Greece with European leaders set to meet this evening in an attempt to unlock bailout funds for the highly indebted nation. Meanwhile this morning the Australian dollar opens looking relatively healthy trading at a rate of 1.0460.

We expect a range today of 1.0410 – 1.0490

New Zealand Dollar:

Helping boost demand for the New Zealand dollar on Friday US Stocks rose for a fifth consecutive day. Despite volumes which remained relatively thin, investors were attracted to the higher-yielding asset driving it to an overnight high of 0.8249 against its US Counterpart. In what proved to be bullish week, better than expected jobs and housing data out of the US combined with improved manufacturing figures in China both added to optimism that the world’s two largest economies are on a solid path to recovery. With confidence also growing that a US budget deal can be reached, the avoidance of the highly publicised "fiscal cliff" will only play into the hands of those wishing for a stronger kiwi. Following a week of strong demand the New Zealand dollar opens this morning currently buying 82.25 US Cents

We expect a range today of 0.8190 – 0.8260

Great British Pound:

The Great British Pound firmed on Friday, stronger against a broadly weaker Greenback. Reaching 24 hour highs of 1.6050 against its US Counterpart speculation that US Lawmakers will be able to avoid the potentially devastating fiscal cliff have spurred a move away from the worlds reserve currency. Following a relatively quiet week the Sterling may be poised for a longer-term shift back towards the 1.60 level against its US counterpart after BOE minutes released on Thursday showed Policy Makers voted 8-1 in favour of halting asset-purchases in a move which is likely to see interest rates remain in a neutral position for the months ahead. In what’s shaping up as a more eventful couple of days investors will look towards the all important economic growth indicator, GDP expected for release Tuesday. Opening stronger against the Greenback the Sterling currently swaps hands a rate of 1.6020. Meanwhile on the crosses the Sterling opens weaker against both the Aussie (1.5320) and the Kiwi (1.9450).

We expect a range today of 1.5300 – 1.5365

Majors:
The US Dollar was broadly weaker against a handful of major currencies last week amongst an environment of poor liquidity and improved global risk flows. Driving the majority of the flows away from the worlds reserve currency good news out of Europe in the form of better than expected consumer confidence in Germany have temporarily eased concerns that the Flagship economy will struggle to grow under the weight of a broadly weak Europe. Adding to the "good news" on Friday ECB President Mario Draghi stated the Central Banks remains prepared to add funding "if and when" required. Following a week of frustratingly slow talks regarding Greeces bailout package its widely expected this evening that finance ministers will finally approve a further 2 year extension on debt obligations. After trading between a 24 hour range of (1.2860-1.2989) against its US Counterpart ongoing rumours that a Spanish bailout is set to occur sooner rather than later will only help improve the prospects of the shared unit as the Euro opens stronger this morning at a rate of 1.2950. Meanwhile with liquidity set to return over the coming 24 hours the Greenback opens weaker against the Japanese Yen at 82.42.

Data releases

AUD: No data today
NZD: Inflation expectations m/m
JPY: CSPI y/y
GBP: Nationwide HPI m/m, Revised GDP q/q, Prelim business investment q/q, Index of services 3m/3m
EUR: Eurogroup Meetings
USD: No Data today

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