Asian Session Notes: 11/22/12

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By mdelapaz | November 22, 2012 1:21 PM EST

Fx Instructor

AUDUSD

Resistance: 1.0396 moderate / 1.0424 minor / 1.0458 minor

Support: 1.0376 minor / 1.0361 minor / 1.0338 minor

In the end we saw Aussy turning around in New York trade, despite have seen a full day of weakness ahead of the US session. At the close we saw a hammer suggesting we look for a push higher today. Daily indicators however are less bullish than the price action as macd’s remain flat below the signal line while stochastic is at risk of crossing lower. From the 4H picture we face a confluence of buys from both macd and stochastic, the latter poised to move overbought. Hourly charts for their part has stochastic overbought while macd is also pushing up. Note we have China data at 0145GMT with the HSBC Flash manufacturing numbers. Look for a read above 50 to suggest a further improvement in the manufacturing sector benefiting commodity currencies such as the Aussy. Consider buys off 1.0376 or on a close above 1.0396.

GBPUSD

Resistance: 1.5987 minor / 1.6007 minor / 1.6040 moderate

Support: 1.5957(59) moderate / 1.5937 minor / 1.5908 moderate

Wednesday saw a big push for GBPUSD with prices closing above the 38.2 Fib of the sell-off for the month, 1.5859. Prices for the moment are just under the daily EMA lines while other indicators for their part signal a bullish market as stochastic heads up and macd’s point higher. Note daily charts appear to have a pattern of lower highs and lower lows with the current push up looking like a search for the next lower high. Intraday we have a confluence of buys with stochastic overbought in both 4H and hourly charts while the macd indicators are also heading up. At the moment we seem to have lost momentum following the preTokyo surge, as such we prefer remaining sidelined look for a buy on dips to the 1.5957 region for a surge past the daily EMA’s at 1.5973(80).

EURUSD

Resistance: 1.2883 moderate / 1.2925 minor / 1.2956 moderate

Support: 1.2829 moderate / 1.2796 minor / 1.2763 minor

We continue to see Euro push higher despite the lack of resolution for Greek issues. After seeing a follow through to the ‘cup and handle pattern’ triggered Tuesday, with targets at 1.2952, we have daily stochastic overbought while macd is also heading up. Note we have prices clearly pushing past the daily EMA lines Wednesday. In the 4H picture we have a confluence of buys with stochastic overbought and macd’s pushing up. Hourly charts for their part has stochastic oscillating around 80 and macd’s pushing higher. For now we appear to have lost the momentum following the Tokyo open bullish breakout. As such we prefer looking for a buy on dips to the moderate support at 1.2829 for a test of 1.2883 possibly a surged to the pattern target just under the 61.8 Fib of our downswing from October 17.

EURJPY

Resistance: 106.31 moderate / 106.59 minor / 106.94 moderate

Support: 105.84 minor / 105.55 moderate / 105.09 minor

Wednesday saw EURJPY with another big surge pushing well beyond the average daily range to close with a bozu, just under the moderate resistance at 106.31. Among indicators we have stochastic overbought and macd’s pushing higher. Note we have a growing gap between prices and the daily EMA lines. In the lower time frames we have stochastic oscillating around the 80 level while macd’s are pushing up in the 4H picture. Hourly charts for their part has a qualified dark cloud cover’ with stochastic coming off overbought areas and macd’s topping off. Immediate risk calls for a pullback to the 105.55 moderate support level. We prefer a buy on dips to the 105.55 price point.

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