Daily Forex Forecast 11/21/2012

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By Jim Vondras | November 21, 2012 11:14 AM EST

Australian Dollar
The Aussie opens lower today at 1.0360 after a mixed 24 hours on global markets. At time of writing, Euro zone finance ministers were still locked in meetings aimed at reaching an agreement with the IMF over the latest Greek bailout plans. The Euro hit a 2-week high but this did not flow through to the Aussie which spent most of the New York session trending lower. Minutes from The Reserve Bank''s November meeting released yesterday revealed that "members considered that further easing may appropriate in the period ahead". The Aussie ran out of steam at this point during local trade on Tuesday and spent most of the session trading around the US104-cent mark. Commodity prices also moved lower overnight and this is likely to keep a lid on the Aussie today until further news emerges from the above-mentioned Euro-zone meeting.

We expect a range today of 1.0320 - 1.0400

New Zealand Dollar
The kiwi endured another lacklustre local session on Tuesday trading in a 20-point band between 0.8175 and 0.8195. In the absence of any economic data releases in New Zealand this week, the currency is trading in wider ranges offshore. Overnight, the kiwi followed the Aussie lower hitting a 24-hour nadir of 0.8144 as once again resistance around the US82-cent mark proved impenetrable. The risk remains to the downside for the kiwi at this stage. Meanwhile, the kiwi opens little-changed against the Australian Dollar at 0.7850.

We expect a range today of 0.8120 - 0.8185

Great Britain Pound
Pound sterling (1.5917) opens higher today against its US counterpart on the back of a strong lead from local equity markets which rose for a second consecutive session. The currency hit a 10-day peak overnight of 1.5935 as sentiment was buoyed by expectations that Euro zone finance ministers will finally reach agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in unlocking bailout funds for Greece. Meanwhile, the pound has also rallied against both the Australian Dollar (1.5330) and the New Zealand Dollar (1.9510).

We expect a range today of 1.5300 - 1.5380

Majors
It was a mixed night on financial markets. On one side of the Atlantic sentiment was boosted as Euro zone finance ministers meet for the second time in just over a week as they try to reach an agreement with the IMF in order to unlock bailout funds for Greece. The 17-nation Euro currency hit a two-week high of 1.2828 and equity markets in France and Germany both posted modest gains. Meanwhile, in the United States, Federal Reserve Chairman Mr. Ben Bernanke issued a note of caution to markets warning the US economy faces a substantial threat unless lawmakers avert the so-called "Fiscal cliff". The big dollar reached fresh 7-month highs against the Japanese Yen overnight at 81.75 and has held onto most of those gains. The recent moves higher have largely been triggered by safe-haven flows and a series of stronger-than-expected housing data releases out of the US recently. Construction of new homes in US reached a 4-year peak in October.

Data releases

AUD: No data today

NZD: Credit card spending (Oct)

JPY: No data today

GBP: Bank of England Minutes

EUR: No data today

USD: Initial Jobless Claims (Nov 17)

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