Alpari Grain Outlook 11/20
By Tim Hannagan | November 21, 2012 8:40 AM EST
First things first, markets are closed Thursday day session and night for our Thanksgiving holiday and Fridays grains open at 9:30 central time and close at noon central time. It's a difficult week as we have a short holiday schedule as month-end winds down creating a lot of daily volatility.
Monday’s first report was on the demand side with our weekly export inspections report. Wheat inspected for near-term shipment was 11.1 million bushels versus 10 the week prior, 13.7 a year ago and four week average of 12.5. Very weak demand signal as 25 m.b. or more is needed to push prices higher from a demand perspective. Corn inspections were 14.3 m.b. versus 9 the week prior, 37.8 year ago and four week average of 12. Slight improvement on the four-week average, but 30+ is needed to be price bullish. Bean inspections came in at 61.9m.b. versus 64.6 the week prior, 40 a year ago and four week average of 61.7. Exports remained good but leveling off even though we have dropped 1.70 the last two weeks. They should be better.
China was in for 46.8 of the total down from 47.2 last week and four week China average 47.5. Thinking is China is slowing US purchases as record bean planting winds down in South America. WXRISK.com the AG weather site has the next 6 to 10 day period in Brazil with widespread rain coverage with talk in the market China is canceling previous US purchases with intent to shift to South American ports from late February on out delivery, possibly dollars cheaper. Countries who gambled on good weather in South America and the US last year lost out and had to pay up big time as drought abound everywhere. It does appear to be different this year with above normal rainfall in Argentina and adequate in Brazil and longer-term forecasts are for a wetter weather pattern.
Wheat’s crop condition report came out Monday after the close. It put our early emerging wheat crop at 34% good to excellent condition down 2% from the week prior, 50% a year ago and ten-year average of 57%. Needless to say this crop will go dormant among the poorest condition crops ever. Our four biggest winter wheat states all came in under the average with Colorado 19%, Oklahoma 13%, Texas 30 and number one winter wheat producing state Kansas 30% good to excellent. If this were a April report when yields are made or lost, we would be up on the day measurably but it's early emergence when wheat is in its weed stage and pretty sturdy and hard to kill. Demand is weak and looks to continue until year-end. The poor condition now only means we will be challenged when dormancy breaks next spring to find perfect weather to improve on. For now it's about demand.
It's a short week. Markets closed Thursday. Friday grains open at 9:30 central time and close at 12 noon. From Wednesday's close to our Sunday night openers there is only 2.5 hours for grains to trade and Friday is month-end. The squeeze usually creates one big up day as shorts balance out and one big down day as longs balance out and one choppy two sided day. So far shorts covered Monday and Longs were getting out into Monday night and Tuesday at midsession but then more short covering. Wednesday looks to be the choppy day. Friday is to be watched carefully as we have our weekly export sales report out ahead of the open and its week and month end all colliding to trade. Technicals read like this entering Tuesday. December corn support is 7.30 then 7.05. Resistance 7.45, 7.60 then 7.75. January bean support is 13.70, 13.20 then 13.00. Resistance 14.15 then 14.90. December wheat support is 8.30, 8.15. Resistance 8.50.
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