Overall, a fairly thin week on data as the U.S. counts down to the Thanksgiving holiday.
While the markets continue to focus on the fiscal cliff negotiations, data flow will also receive attention. Topping the list in importance will be the Department of Labor’s weekly update on jobless claims, which should continue to reflect the impact of Superstorm Sandy.
Recent daily soundings suggest that the improvement in consumer sentiment leading up to the national elections has evaporated, while housing barometers are expected to be mixed.
Euro zone finance ministers will meet on Tuesday and are expected to agree to the disbursement of Greece’s next bail-out loan tranche.
“But even if the next payment is signed off without a hitch, some countries’ parliaments will then have to ratify the deal (most notably that of Germany),” writes Ben May, European Economist at Capital Economics. “Accordingly, Greece seems unlikely to receive any money until late November at the earliest.”
The key data released this week will be the euro zone composite PMI and the German Ifo business surveys for November.
Elsewhere, market speculation is building that the Bank of Japan will ramp up quantitative easing, but probably not at its Nov. 19-20 meeting. Further easing measures will likely be announced at the Dec. 19-20 policy meeting.
Below are entries on the economic calendar between Nov. 19 and Nov. 23. All listed times are EST.
10:00 a.m. -- Existing home sales retreated in September after climbing through the summer months. Total sales recorded a 4.75 million-unit annual pace in the month. Economists expect existing home sales to remain steady at around a 4.75 million-unit pace in October.
10:00 a.m. -- The NAHB's housing market index likely remained unchanged in November at 41.
E17 -- EU Foreign Ministers meet in Brussels.
E17 -- ECB Executive Board member Peter Praet and German Central Bank President Jens Weidmann speak at 15th Euro Finance Week in Frankfurt.
E17 -- ECB Executive Board member Benoit Coeuré and Finland Central Bank Governor Erkki Liikanen speaks at EU conference in Brussels.
8:30 a.m. – Housing starts jumped up to 872,000 in September, with significant gains in the single- and multi-family components. The number of new housing units started probably retreated by 3.7 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 840,000 in October. Housing permits likely fell by 2.8 percent to 865,000 from 890,000 in September.
9:00 a.m. -- Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Jeffrey Lacker (FOMC voter) speaks on "the Fed's Monetary Policy Adrift" before the Shadow Open Market Committee Fall 2012 Symposium in New York.
12:15 p.m. -- Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke (FOMC voter) speaks on "The Economic Recovery and Economic Policy" before the Economic Club of New York.
Japan – BoJ target rate.
Sweden – Central Bank Governor Stefan Ingves speaks at the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum in London.
Australia -- RBA board minutes.
Turkey -- Benchmark repo rate and overnight lending rate.
E17 -- Eurogroup meeting (exceptional).
E17 -- ECB Executive Board member Coeuré speaks at 15th Euro Finance Week in Frankfurt.
Japan – October trade balance.
7:00 a.m. -- The Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Mortgage Index for the week ending Nov. 17.
8:30 a.m. – Initial jobless claims likely fell to 410,000 in the week ending Nov. 17 from 439,000 in the prior week.
8:58 a.m. -- There is no doubt that global demand for U.S. manufactured goods has weakened considerably. Economists suspect that the Markit manufacturing PMI remained steady in November at the three-year low of 51.0 seen in October. Apart from the slight rise in August, the PMI has been falling since April. In October, it even fell below the alternative ISM manufacturing index.
9:55 a.m. – Economists look for a decline in the final November print of the University of Michigan’s index of consumer sentiment to 84.5 from 84.9 in the preliminary release.
10:00 a.m. – The Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) Index climbed 0.6 percent in September to 95.9. The 11.6 percent monthly boost in building permits was the primary driver of the improvement in the index; however, general gains in the stock market and the Fed’s renewed efforts to keep the cost of consumer financing low provided additional support. Economists expect the LEI index to continue to rise in October, up 0.2 percent, driven largely by interest rate spreads and an improvement in jobless claims.
U.K. -- MPC minutes, bank rate vote and asset purchase vote.
Market closed in observance of Thanksgiving.
E27 -- EU Summit.
South Africa -- The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) announce interest rate.
E17 – November “flash” manufacturing PMI index, “flash” services PMI index and “flash” composite PMI index.
Early close -- bond, stock markets.
E27 -- EU Summit (final day).
Germany -- Bundestag adopts 2013 fiscal federal budget.
Colombia -- Overnight lending rate.
E17 -- ECB President Mario Draghi speaks at 22nd European Banking Congress (EBC) in Frankfurt.
Germany -- IFO business climate index, current assessment index and business expectations index for November.
Sources: Central banks, European Commission, Reuters, Market News, Capital Economics, Barclays, Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
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