Asian Session Notes 11/19/2012

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By mdelapaz | November 19, 2012 1:21 PM EST

Fx Instructor

AUDUSD

Resistance: 1.0386 moderate / 1.0425 minor / 1.0458 minor

Support: 1.0349 minor / 1.03331 strong / 1.0306 minor

Position squaring ahead of the weekend saw Friday with a 4H double bottom triggered and prices back inside the previous double top in our daily charts. At the close we saw long tails for Friday with prices now back inside the daily EMA lines even as stochastic has now crossed up though macd remains bearish. From the 4H picture we have stochastic in overbought levels while macd has just crossed up. Hourly charts for their part has a bullish macd while the stochastic indicator appears o be trying to make a base of the 80 level. For now we prefer a buy on dips to the key support level though 1.0349 may also be used as an entry. Alternatively an hourly close above 1.0386 may also be seen as an entry point.

NZDUSD

Resistance: 0.8155 moderate / 0.8170 moderate / 0.8180 moderate

Support: 0.8124 minor / 0.8105 strong / 0.8278 minor

After dipping under the key support at 0.8105 initially we saw Kiwi with a long tail Friday suggesting that our range play from mid September remains intact. We have prices under the daily EMA lines though from indicators stochastic is heading up while macd remains flat below the signal line. Note we have had weaker than expected inflation metrics. In 4H charts we have a shooting star while indicators show an overbought stochastic and rising macd. Hourly charts for their part defines the days highs as a ‘gravestone doji’ with indicators looking mixed as we ease off overbought levels while macd is pushing higher. With the weeks long range play and generally weaker dollar view we would like to see a buy on dips to 81.05.

EURJPY

Resistance: 104.00 moderate / 104.42 minor / 104.63 strong

Support: 103.69 minor / 103.31 moderate / 103.03 minor

Friday saw EURJPY with a ‘Hanging Man’ at the close while the weeks open saw a quick rally that also faltered quickly, forming ‘Dark Cloud Cover’ in the hourly charts and possibly the 4H picture. Daily indicators has an overbought stochastic while macd is also bullish though we do have a significant gap between prices and the daily EMAs opening the possibility of mean reversion. In the 4H picture we have an overbought stochastic while macd is flat above the signal. Hourly charts for their part has stochastic coming off overbought levels while macd is above the signal line. Given the speculative nature of the previous weeks rally we are looking for a pullback with a close under 103.69 as a possible entry. Alternative entry a sell on rallies to 104.00.

USDCAD

Resistance: 1.0017 minor / 1.0034 minor / 1.0056 minor

Support: 0.9995 moderate / 0.9980 minor / 0.9958 moderate

We have had a succession of bearish daily candles in USDCAD with the bearish engulfing Thursday and Fridays long wick suggesting we look for a bear market. Among indicators we have daily stochastic just pushing oversold while macd has crossed lower and prices are just under the 200D SMA. In the 4H picture we have a multiple top from our candlesticks while stochastic is oversold and macd is heading lower. Hourly charts are poised to move oversold in stochastic while macd has been dropping. Look for a close below 0.9995 to signal a pullback at-least to the 21D EMA at 0.9980 likely more, eventually to 0.9877 for a swing read.

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