Asian Session Notes 11/14/12

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By mdelapaz | November 14, 2012 1:21 PM EST

Fx Instructor

EURJPY

Resistance: 101.15(28) moderate / 101.69(72) moderate / 102.06(16) moderate

Support: 100.78 minor / 100.43 moderate / 100.14 minor

EURJPY closed with a long tail in the daily charts Tuesday for a possible hammer with daily indicators looking mixed as stochastic comes off oversold levels while macd is heading lower. Note we face a series of moderate resistances starting with the 200D SMA at 101.15(28). In the lower time frames we have mixed signals in the 4H picture with stochastic just crossing lower and macds heading up in a generally sideways market. Hourly indicators are also looking mixed with stochastic crossing lower and macd heading up. For now we prefer remaining sidelined with a close above 101.28 a possible buy while a close under 100.78 reopens the sell side for yesterdays lows initially then on to the key support at 99.66.

AUDUSD

Resistance: 1.0443 moderate / 1.0480 minor / 1.0519 moderate

Support: 1.0425 minor / 1.0399 minor / 1.0382 minor

Aussy managed to close marginally above the moderate resistance area at 1.0443 with an earlier attempt a follow through rally faltering given the weak Asian equity market. Daily indicators continue to have a bullish bias with stochastic poised to push overbought and macd’s rising. In intraday charts we have a confluence of busy from the 4H picture with stochastic overbought and macd pushing up though we risk a high wave candle forming. Hourly charts for their part has a confluence of buys as well. Given the pullback below 1.0443 we prefer looking for a push through the days high as a bullish entry. Alternatively look for base building just above 1.0443 before going long.

GBPUSD

Resistance: 1.5884 minor / 1.5914 moderate / 1.5829 moderate

Support: 1.5860 strong / 1.5848 moderate / 1.5823 minor

At the close we have a high wave doji for Cable with prices apparently finding support from the 200D SMA though unable to hold on to its bounce. Note we have a big gap between prices and the daily EMA lines suggesting we face mean reversion risk. Among indicators we have a bearish macd while stochastic has come-off oversold areas. In 4H charts we have mixed signals with stochastic heading lower and macd’s above their signal line. Hourly charts has macd’s under their signal line while stochastic is heading up. For now we prefer remaining sidelined given the mixed signals, proximity to the 200D SMA though suggests a possible buy on dips to the 1.5860 area with stops under the previous false breakout lows. A 4H close under the 200D SMA could also be seen as a bearish entry.

EURUSD

Resistance: 1.2736(39) moderate / 1.2781 minor / 1.2827 minor

Support: 1.2689 minor / 1.2661 minor / 1.2626 strong

Euro has been selling off for sometime following a symmetric triangle breakout in the daily charts. Tuesday gave us a ‘high wave doji’ in daily candlesticks suggesting a possible shift in momentum. Among indicators we have stochastic coming off oversold areas while macd is heading lower and prices are just under the 200D SMA, 1.2736(39). Daily EMA’s continue to look bearish with new dead crosses. In the lower time-frames we have mixed signals with a confluence of buys in the hourly picture while stochastic is crossing lower and macd’s are heading up in the 4H level. For now immediate risk calls for a close above 1.2736(39), triggering a possible mean reversion play. Alternative bullish entry will be from 1.2626, the strong support. Shorts may only be consider from under 1.2736(39) later on should intraday signals turn.

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