Australian Dollar Outlook - 14 November 2012

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By Christine Gaylican | November 14, 2012 10:57 AM EST

Bell FX Currency Outlook: The Australian Dollar has risen on improved sentiment regarding Greece's debt situation.

Australia: Currency markets were supported overnight by news the Greek Government had arranged sufficient funding to meet existing debt obligations, thereby avoiding a possible default. With Europe the main focus overnight, what seems to have been a "relief rally" played out, with the AUD benefitting from Greece's short-dated Treasury bill sale which allowed Greece to avoid default on EUR5bn in Greek bills maturing 16 November, by raising EUR4.1bn.

Meanwhile, Eurozone and IMFofficials continue to negotiate a compromise over the next €31.3bn of bailout funds. The key themes in global markets continue to be Greece's finances and the US fiscal cliff.

On the fiscal cliff, S&P said the most plausible outcome was a deal to avert a recession which would otherwise occur.

The AUD was stronger across the board and today, the market will focus on Australian Q3 wages data and consumer confidence figures for November. It seems the AUD is well supported in the coming days and it is more than possible the recent lack of movement in the currency is a sign of short term equilibrium.

Majors: The US Dollar was somewhat weaker and EUR/USD stronger, with a temporary spike caused by a later-refuted headline that Greece would receive a EUR44 billion payment from the ECB/EU/IMF troika shortly.

The German ZEW survey of investor confidence fell by more than expected in October but was largely ignored by markets. The current situation index declined for the sixth consecutive month and the economic sentiment (outlook) index also declined.

These moves may reflect recent financial market moves and a slowing of economic activity in the euro area which is now affecting German investor confidence. The German IFO business survey is scheduled to be released next Friday.

Oil prices were mixed overnight as prices came under pressure from an International Energy Agency report that cut estimates for global oil demand for the remainder of the year and into 2013.

Spot gold prices were largely unchanged overnight as investors wait for further clarification on the Greek aid package. Base metals prices and agricultural commodities prices were mixed.

Offshore today, the US has Advance Retail Sales and the Fed is releasing its Minutes from the Oct 23- 24 FOMC meeting. Retail sales are expected to dip by 0.1%, after a string of solid readings. Labour market data is due in the UK and EC Industrial Production.

Economic Calendar
14 NOV AU Westpac Consumer Confidence
AU Wage Cost Index QoQ/YoY
EU Euro-Zone Ind. Prod sa Mom/YoY
UK Oct Jobless claims change
UK BOE Inflation Report
US Oct PPI
US Advance retail sales
US Oct 13 FOMC minutes

If you require latest pricing and ranges, visit www.bellpotter.com.au

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