US Oil Output to Overtake Saudi Arabia’s by 2020

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By Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr. | November 13, 2012 11:14 PM EST

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US Crude Oil output is poised to surpass Saudi Arabia’s in the 8 yrs, making the world’s biggest fuel consumer almost self-reliant and putting it on track to become a net exporter, the International Energy Agency said.

Growing supplies of US Crude Oil extracted through new technology including hydraulic fracturing of underground rock formations will transform the U.S. into the largest producer for about 5 yrs starting about Y 2020, the Paris-based adviser to 28 nations said today in its annual World Energy Outlook.

The US met 83% of its energy needs in 1-H of 2012 according to the Energy Department in Washington.

“The IEA outlook feeds into the idea of a shift in the center of influence in the world oil market,” said Gareth Lewis-Davies, an analyst at BNP Paribas SA in London. “Given Saudi Arabia is willing to shift production up and down it will retain a large degree of influence, and remain important as a price-influencer.”

US Crude Oil imports have fallen 11% this year is on track to produce the most Crude Oil since Y 1991, according to Energy Department data. In a year when Iran has threatened to halt Persian Gulf oil shipments, the growing output, coupled with a gas-production boom, may help insulate the nation from supply disruptions.

US President Obama cited “freeing ourselves from foreign oil” as a policy goal in his election victory speech last week, echoing his predecessor, George W. Bush, who in Y 2006 urged the US to break its “addiction” to imported Crude Oil.

US WTI Crude Oil has dropped 13% this year to 85.55 bbl on the New York Merc, as stockpiles swelled to a 22-yr high. Prices have more than quadrupled in the past 10 yrs, reaching as high as 147.27 bbl in July 2008.
Global demand for oil is projected to rise to 99.7-M BPD in Y 2035, up from 87.4-M BPD last year, according to the IEA, which advises industrialized nations including the US, Germany and Japan. Monday’s report projects trends to Y 2035.
Saudi Arabia pumped 9.8-M BPD last month, according to the data. US output was 6.7-M BPD in the week ended 2 November, according to the US Energy Department.

The US will pump 11.1-M BPD a day in Y 2020 and 10.9-M in Y 2025, the IEA said. Those figures are 500,000 BPD and 100,000 BPD higher, respectively, than its forecasts for Saudi Arabia for those years. The desert kingdom is due to become the biggest producer again by Y 2030, pumping 11.4-M BPD Vs 10.2-m BPD in the US

Officials at the US Energy Department were not available for comment, the office was closed in observance of the US Veteran’s Day holiday Monday.

Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr.

Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr. writes and publishes The Red Roadmaster’s Technical Report on the US Major Market Indices, a weekly, highly-regarded financial market letter, read by opinion makers, business leaders and organizations around the world.

Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr has studied the global financial and stock markets since 1984, following a successful business career that included investment banking, and market and business analysis. He is a specialist in equities/commodities, and an accomplished chart reader who advises technicians with regard to Major Indices Resistance/Support Levels.

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