Australian Dollar Outlook - 13 November 2012

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By Christine Gaylican | November 13, 2012 10:54 AM EST

Bell FX Currency Outlook: Aussie opens marginally higher in a quiet overnight session.

Australia: A lack of domestic data and the US Veterans Day holiday saw minor moves across markets overnight. The Australian Dollar traded to a high of 1.0443 against the US Dollar to open at 1.0425 this morning.

Demand for domestic home loans grew in September, broadly in line with expectations yesterday. The number of home loans granted rose to a seasonally adjusted 0.9% to 46,395 to be 5.1% higher over the year.

Housing market activity has improved somewhat in recent months with increased residential auction sales and moderate house price gains and cuts to interest rates filtering through the market.

China's new Yuan loans fell unexpectedly in October from the previous year. Banks extended 505.2 bn Yuan in loans, down 14 precent from the previous year and below the expected 590 bn.

A contraction for Q3 Japanese GDP has confirmed the economy is in a mild recession and continuing to struggle after the severe setback from last year's devastating tsunami.

The Australian dollar has been buoyed by recent steady jobs data, an improving housing market, commentary Central banks have been buying the local currency for their reserves, and recent rumours the Reserve bank of Australia (RBA) may keep the cash rate on hold at their December
meeting. Today in Asia markets will focus on Australian NAB business confidence figures for October due at 11:30am.

Majors: US equity markets ended little changed in a light trading session with the US treasury market closed for the Veterans Day holiday. The S&P 500 gapped at the open after data out of China over the weekend showed exports rose sharply in October.

The Eur remains near a two month low against the dollar as uncertainty over another tranche of financial aid for Greece kept investors cautious. The impending fiscal cliff in the US also added to the cautious tone.

The S&P 500 ended 0.1% higher at 1,380 whilst the DJIA was 0.1% higher at 12,822. Moves in European equities were also muted with the German DAX and FTSE ending unchanged at 7,169 and 5,767. Oil prices ended weaker in choppy trade with Brent falling 0.6% to USD 108.9 per barrel and WTI Futures falling 0.8% to USD 85.71 per barrel. Gold also ended the session lower at USD 1,728.50 per ounce.

Economic Calendar
13 NOV AU RBA's Kearns (Head of Eco Analysis) Remarks to ABE
AU NAB Business confidence OCT
JP Industrial Production SEP
GE Zew Survey (Eco Sentiment) NOV
US Monthly Budget Statement OCT
UK CPI OCT

If you require latest pricing and ranges, visit www.bellpotter.com.au

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