Australian Dollar Outlook - 09 November 2012

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By Christine Gaylican | November 9, 2012 11:31 AM EST

Bell FX Currency Outlook: The Australian Dollar has languished just over the 1.0400 level as Australia's employment data was slightly better than expected yesterday but financial markets continue to be more concerned about the "fiscal cliff" issue in the US.

Australia: With economists generally predicting that Australia's unemployment rate would rise slightly to 5.5% with only a small number of new jobs, the market was mildly surprised that ABS statistics said that there were 10,700 jobs created last month and the unemployment rate remained at 5.4% which helped to move the AUD in the early afternoon yesterday.

The participation rate fell slightly from 65.2% to 65.1%. This short term euphoria was short lived as concerns about the fiscal cliff issue in the US and continuing ordinary economic figures out of Europe dampened the interest in the AUD.

Equity markets were lower both in Europe and the US as investors consider the potential risk of another recession. Today at 11:30 am the RBA will release its Quarterly Statement of Monetary policy which will be dissected for further hints on the future path of interest rates and monetary policy.

The RBA will also update its views on GDP growth and future inflation estimates. With power officially changing hands for the next decade in China yesterday we will see some October data on CPI, PPI, industrial production, fixed asset investments and retail sales from our largest trading partner today that might have an effect on our local currency.

Majors: It was a busy night offshore as well with the Bank of England and the ECB both leaving their cash rates at the same levels of 0.50% and 0.75%, respectively.

The asset purchase target done by the BOE remains the same at GBP375bn. The ECB President, Mario Draghi, has indicated he sees no real need to further lower interest rates in the Eurozone since pressures in the international finance sector have eased in the last several months.

Trade data was mixed overnight with the US trade balance not as poor as predicted as exports were higher than expected. New austerity measures were slightly approved by the Greek Parliament which will allow further bailout funds to flow but Germany and France both reported poorer than expected trade data for September which does not bode well for the hopes of two of the continent's largest economies.

New Zealand's unemployment rate has hit a post-GFC high jumping to 7.3% from 6.8% last month which has helped push the AUDNZD rate above 1.2700

Economic Calendar
9 NOV AU RBA - Statement on monetary policy
CH Oct Consumer Price Index
CH Oct Producer Price Index
CH Oct Industrial production
CH Oct Retail sales
US Oct Import Price Index
US Sep Wholesale inventories if you require

If you require latest pricing and ranges, visit www.bellpotter.com.au

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