Australian Dollar Outlook - 08 November 2012
By Christine Gaylican | November 8, 2012 11:18 AM EST
Bell FX Currency Outlook: The Australian Dollar is almost half a US cent lower after US Obama's historic victory for a second term, as concerns about the US economy overshadowed the euphoria over the result.
Australia: Americans and indeed many around the world saw the victory as truly exciting but the harsh reality now is the president's first task will be to deal with the fiscal cliff which is not any easier with Republicans continuing to control the House and Democrats controlling the Senate.
House Speaker John A. Boehner made the first goodwill gesture offer regarding the year-end fiscal cliff by telling President Obama the Republican majority in the House was willing to work with the White House.
The so-called fiscal cliff is the simultaneous expiry of tax and spending cuts due at the end of 2012, which could push the US back into another recession. He added that it's key to avert the cliff in a manner that serves as a down payment on - and a catalyst for - major solutions, enacted in 2013, that begin to solve the problem."
Congress returns Tuesday for a short session before the year end. So within hours of this amazing victory, the post-US election dust has settled and markets are now focusing on the European debt crisis and the resolution to the US fiscal situation.
In currency markets, it was a night of heavy volatility in the US dollar and choppy price action. The AUD appreciated to a high of 1.0478 with NZD not far behind.
Widespread buying of US dollars ensued as investors contemplated the likelihood of the coming partisan debates and political brinkmanship.
The return of the AUD to the post-RBA-meeting levels of 1.0400, amongst similar retracement in other currencies, left even experienced participants somewhat surprised.
Today in Australia the market will focus on the October labour force report before the RBA's Statement on Monetary Policy tomorrow. The market remains pretty convinced the AUD/USD will stay firm but equally volatile in USD for some time with political appointments and tackling America's fiscal cliff make headlines in coming weeks.
Majors: Across the Atlantic, weak euro zone economic data weighed on EUR, with EUR/USD one of the worst performing currency pairs overnight.
ECB President Draghi was speaking in Germany noting that the host country was starting to be hurt by the debt crisis, reflected we note by weak German factory orders, industrial production, and soft retail sales reports the past two days.
Oil prices weakened overnight on concerns over the approaching US 'fiscal cliff' and on comments by Draghi. Base
metals prices were broadly weaker and agricultural commodities prices were mixed.
Tonight the ECB and BoE will meet with no rate/ policy changes expected from both. Spain is selling 3, 6, and 20 year bonds a big test of
market stability in choppier conditions of the past 24 hours. The US has
international trade and jobless claims reports.
8 NOV AU Oct Unemployment Rate
AU Participation Rate
EU ECB announces Interest rates
UK BOE Announces rates
UK Sep Total Trade Balance
US Sep Trade Balance
US Nov initial jobless claims
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