The Nemenoff Report Bonds Lower, S&P's higher, Silver Higher

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By Marc Nemenoff | November 7, 2012 1:31 AM EST

Price Futures Group

Financials: Dec. Bonds are currently 9 lower at 148’31 and the 10 Yr. Note 3 lower at 133’01.5. Last Friday we covered short positions on the break after the Unemployment Report giving us a small short term profit. I still remain negative on this market but will remain on the sidelines for the moment and wait for the election results before re-entering this market. Given the Economic Plans by the two candidates my gut feeling is that the Bonds will break on a Romney win and hold firm on an Obama victory for the short term.

Grains: Dec. Corn is currently 5’0 higher at 740’4, Jan. Beans 13’4 higher at 1516’6 and Dec. Wheat 7’6 higher at 873’6. We remain long out of the money calls in Dec. Corn and long the Mar. Corn 800’0/850’0 call spread. At the moment I am not looking to get involved in Dec. Corn futures unless they trade below the 730’0 level were I will be a buyer with a 15 cent risk. Dec. Wheat is still flirting with breaking out above the 40 day moving average which is currently at 873’2. Friday morning we will have both Crop Production and Supply/Demand reports which will inform us whether or not we want to stay with our Dec. Corn calls which expire Nov. 23rd.

Cattle: Dec. Live Cattle are currently 25 higher at 125.52 and Jan. Feeder Cattle 15 lower at 146.625. Trends remain down but nearing support in Dec. LC just below the 124.50 level were I will be willing to try the long side of the market. As for Jan. Feeder Cattle, a close below the 145.50 level could signal a test of support in the 142.00.

Silver: Dec. Silver is currently 23 cents higher at 31.62 and Dec. Gold 8.00 dollars higher at 1691.00. We remain long Silver as a long term trade. For the near term I am not willing to enter the market before the election.

S&P's: Dec. S&P’s are currently 5.00 higher at 1417.00. I am on the sidelines until after the election. As I have mentions in the last few “Reports”, if you have a strong opinion going into the election consider the purchase of out of the money Nov. options, either put or calls, which have an expiration of Nov. 16th and carry a small premium.

Currencies: As of this writing the Dec. Euro is currently 12 higher at 1.2805, the Swiss 2 higher at 1.0606, the Yen 9 higher at 1.2471 and the Pound 11 higher at 1.5980. I recommend the sidelines ahead of the Election. Over the last couple of weeks I have been putting support in the Euro at 1.2650, I am going to tempoarily lower support to the 1.2530 level and keep resistance at the 1.3150 area. I am still looking to go short the Yen on a sharp rally above the 1.2750 level if the market allows.

Regards, Marc
888.908.4310 | 312.264.4310
mnemenoff@pricegroup.com
www.pricegroup.com

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