Australian Dollar Outlook - 06/11/2012

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By Christine Gaylican | November 6, 2012 12:03 PM EST

Bell FX Currency Outlook: Australian Dollar little changed as currency markets play a waiting game.

Australia: The Australian dollar traded in a tight range overnight as markets await the outcome of the Reserve bank of Australia (RBA) meeting this afternoon and the US Presidential election outcome tonight.

The local unit performed well after yesterdays slightly better than expected retail Sales and International Trade data - although would be unlikely to have an effect on the central banks interest rate decision this afternoon.

Retail Sales saw a moderate rise of 0.5% in September whilst Australia's trade Balance was released at -1.46B. Today, there is excitement in the air with Melbourne Cup finally here. Markets are very much mixed and are still showing a 50-50 chance as to whether the RBA will cut interest rates by a further 25bps.

We expect some volatility but no cut would mean a higher AUD and more pain for exporters. The Melbourne Cup is seen drawing in some foreign and local travelers that could boost tourism in the area.

Majors: US markets were mixed overnight ahead of the US Presidential Election tonight. Treasury and Equity markets saw modest gains in light trade with the S&P 500 closing 0.1% higher at 1,415 and the DJIA was unchanged at 13,092. US ISM non-manufacturing saw a slight fall in October to 54.2.

European markets generally declined overnight ahead of Greece's vote on budget reforms and Austerity budget for 2013. This is critical for Greece in securing the next tranche of bailout funds.

The German DAX and FTSE both fell 0.5% to 7,326 and 5,839 while the Eur Stoxx declined 1.2% to 2,158.

Gold prices rose modestly after posting its biggest one-day drop since June ending 0.4% higher at USD 1,684 per ounce. Metals and commodity prices were mixed whilst oil prices were stronger in choppy trade.

Brent rose 1.7% to USD 107.9 per barrel while WTI futures rose 0.8% to USD 85.8 per barrel.

Economic Calendar
6 NOV AU RBA Monetary Policy Meeting
AU House Price Index Q3
US Presidential Election
UK Manufacturing Production SEP
MX G20 Finance Ministers Meet in Mexico
US Treasury Auctions 3-Year Notes
EU Euro-Zone PPI Sep

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