Asian Session Notes 11/01/12

NZDUSD

Resistance: 0.8238 moderate / 0.8266 minor / 0.8291 minor

Support: 0.8196 moderate / 0.8169 minor / 0.8136 minor

Kiwi has been stuck in a range play for the past week with resistances at 0.8238 and the key support at 0.8196. A daily close above the former or below the latter would be needed for any sustained breakout. From indicators we have a bullish bias with prices above the daily EMA lines while stochastic is looking to push overbought and the macd line remains above its signal line. In the lower time frames we have 4H macd’s flat while stochastic is poised to push overbought. Hourly charts for their part has a flat macd with a bullish stochastic. Given this we prefer a buy on dips to 0.8196 though an hourly close below the said price can also be seen as a bearish entry. Alternatively a close above 0.8238 will also be seen as a bullish entry.

GBPUSD

Resistance: 1.6144 minor / 1.6175 moderate / 1.6216 minor

Support: 1.6123 minor / 1.6086 / 1.6065 minor

At the close we saw Cable just around the daily highs only a few pips lower than the previous lower high in our daily pattern. Indicators has stochastic pointing up, poised to push overbought while macd is also heading higher. Note for combing the last three days our bounce off the 55D EMA makes for a ‘Three Outside Up’ pattern. In the 4H picture we have stochastic oscillating around 80 confirming a bullish market while macd is also pointing up. Hourly charts for their part has stochastic and macd’s heading lower. Immediate risk calls for a bear market though with a ‘Three Outside Up’ pattern we prefer looking for a buy on dips to 1.6086 or on a break of 1.6144 or from 1.6123 by the time European markets open if we continue to congest till then. Any bearish breakout may be brief.

EURUSD

Resistance: 1.2983 minor / 1.3013 moderate / 1.3041 minor

Support: 1.2956 moderate / 1.2923 minor / 1.2884 moderate

Euro at the close saw a ‘Gravestone Doji’ though absent a long bullish trend preceding it we see little sense of urgency for shorting. At this point we are just around the 21D EMA a moderate support with the pair overall inside a six week long triangle. Daily indicators has a bearish macd while stochastic is heading up. From the 4H picture we have stochastic poised to push oversold while macd is heading up. Hourly charts for their part has mixed signals with macd dropping while stochastic is pointing up. Given the mixed signals we prefer remaining sidelined though an hourly close under 1.2956 may be seen as a bearish entry. Note take too long to break lower and we will look for buys by the time European markets open.

AUDUSD

Resistance: 1.0386 minor / 1.0410 moderate / 1.0443 minor

Support: 1.0367 minor / 1.0344 minor / 1.0325 minor

At the close we had a long wick in yesterday’s candle though indicators show a confluence of buys as daily stochastic cross up while the macd’s are pushing higher. We have Chinese Manufacturing PMI at 0100GMT with above 50.3 reads likely to spark a rally. Note we have the daily EMA likes acting as a strong support our bounce off point from Tuesday. Intraday we have a confluence of buys off 4H levels with stochastic just crossing up while macd has bullish for sometime. Hourly charts for their part has stochastic in the process of crossing higher while macd is also close behind looking for its own bullish crossover. We prefer waiting for the Chinese PMI data though a daily close above 1.0410 would likely open the way for surge up to the 1.0624 area in the coming weeks.