Asian Session Note: 10/16/12

AUDJPY

Resistance: 80.97 minor / 81.24 moderate / 81.49 minor

Support: 80.74 moderate / 80.42 minor / 80.00 minor

Following the sharp rally in Aussy we have AUDJPY ending monday around the daily highs taking prices just below the 55D EMA. Indicators has the higher time frames looking bullish with daily stochastic poised to push overbought while macd is also rising. In the 4H charts we have a bullish macd and an overbought stochastic though given the push through moderate resistances this is justified. Hourly charts for their part has stochastic poised for a bear cross while macd is flat above the signal. Candlesticks for their part has an hourly hanging man. Immediate risk points to a vulnerable moderate support for the moment though take too long to close under 80.74 and we will look for base building by the European open.

NZDUSD

Resistance: 0.8146 moderate / 0.8172 minor / 0.8195 minor

Support: 0.8129 minor / 0.8111 minor / 0.8083 moderate

Kiwi has been stick in a range play the past two weeks with Monday’s attempts at a bear market frustrated by the broad market turn-around in New York trade. We have daily stochastic oscillating around the 20 level while macd is heading lower. For the moment we are now back under the daily EMA lines with prices in the process of taking out the moderate congestion floor at 0.8146. In the lower time frames we have a confluence of bears in both 4H and hourly macd and stochastic. Given the signals look for shorts on a close below 0.8146 or coming off 0.8172 the days highs.

EURUSD

Resistance: 1.2987 moderate / 1.3030 moderate / 1.3071 minor

Support: 1.2934 minor / 1.2894 moderate / minor

Euro remains inside a whippt symmetric triangle with the daily highs getting sharply lower while the EMA lines provide a support. Indicators has the macd line flat just below the signal while stochastic is heading higher. Note we face an immeidate moderate resistance at 1.2987, 50 Fib of the September 17 sell-off followed by the 61.8 Fib at 1.3030. In the lower time frames we are looking at mixed signals with the 4H and hourly macd’s pointing higher while stochastic for both has just given us a bear cross. We also have a possible double top in the hourly charts. In the context of our mixed signals we prefer looking for shorts coming off the 1.2987 region for 1.2934 the pattern trigger.

AUDUSD

Resistance: 1.0280(88) moderate / 1.0323 moderate / 1.0355 minor

Support: 1.0242 minor / 1.0209 minor / 1.0183 minor

Monday saw Aussy closing with a big white body following a reversal of earlier weakness late New York trade pushing us back to just under the daily EMA lines. Our immediate resistance is at 1.0280(88) the 21D EMA and 200D SMA, along with previous highs, daily indicators for their part has stochastic crossing higher while macd has also crossed up. In the lower time frames we have buy signals with 4H stochastic overbought and hourly poised to push above 80 while their macd indicators are heading up. Immediate risk calls for further gains on a close above 1.0288 for a possible tun to 1.0323 the 55D EMA. Take too long to push up and we risk generating sell signals in the lower time frames coming off a moderate resistance in European trade.