Bell FX Currency Outlook: The Australian Dollar has opened steady as concerns about growth prospects continue to plague Europe and the global economy.
A euro currency sign in front of the European Central Bank in Frankfurt, Germany
Australia: European Union (EU) officials are set to meet in Brussels on Thursday and Friday to discuss further action on the region's debt crisis. Concerns about peripheral countries re-emerged last week, after ratings agency Standard & Poor's dropped Spain's credit rating to just one notch
above junk status.
Despite US consumer confidence rising to a 5-year high, markets were subdued on Friday night. With Spain still refusing to request a bailout and some lacklustre US earnings reports, equities and commodities were generally lower.
The AUD is steady this morning after Saturday's Chinese trade data was better than expected, with the surplus rising to a 3-month high of $27.7bn in September, from $26.7bn in August.
Exports rose twice as fast as expected at 9.9%yoy, while imports were in line with expectations at 2.4%yoy. The AUD underperformed on downbeat comments from RBA Governor Stevens regarding China, but in early trade this morning has recovered some ground following this Chinese trade data.
In Australia, housing finance for August is released today and we look for a 2% gain. Tomorrow the RBA Minutes from the October 2 meeting are released, where the main interest is whether the RBA makes any comment or indication that another easing is coming. The China data "dump", including Q3 GDP, is released Thursday.
Majors: The US Dollar was generally weaker and the EUR stronger as rumours circulated in early London trading that Spain would ask for a bailout package. This tone was further supported by an upside surprise to euro area industrial production for August. It was a mixed session offshore on Friday night due to a range of rumours, headlines and data.
Oil prices were weaker on Friday night, weighed down by an International Energy Agency report that forecast higher supplies and declining oil consumption.
Spot gold fell as improving US economic data could potentially curb the need for further monetary stimulus that has boosted gold prices in recent
weeks. Base metals prices were weaker across the board, whilst agricultural commodities were generally softer on Friday night. (We expect Q3 underlying CPI inflation to print at a modest 0.5% q/q when released on 24 October.) JPMorgan also released better-than-expected Q3 sales and earnings.
15 OCT CH Consumer Price Index
CH Producer Price Index
AU Home Loans m/m
US Retail Sales
US Empire State manufacturing index
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