After three consecutive weeks of losses, the Aussie dollar was able to buck the trend last week posting moderate gains despite an overall stronger greenback. Despite a recent string of less-than-inspiring local directives, technical's suggested the local unit had fallen too far, too soon, and with the help of slightly more encouraging labour data, the stage was set for a reprieve. The highlight of the local week ahead will be the release of the RBA policy meeting minutes on Tuesday. True to form, investors will be scouring through the minutes in an effort to find any indication Stevens and Company will slice another 25bps on Melbourne Cup day. The October statement featured a rather colourless assessment of global economic conditions, noting the risk remain to the downside while acknowledging uncertainty surrounding China's growth prospects is "greater than it was some months ago." The statement also reiterated the peak in resource investment is "likely to occur next year" and may be at a lower level than earlier expected." Once again the high Australian dollar received a mention but failed to expand on their well known views the exchange rate has remained higher than expected, given the decline in commodity prices and weaker global outlook. Although markets were quick to pencil in further rate cuts, there's little to suggest the RBA will begin an aggressive period of easing with the final paragraph noting the board considered it appropriate for the policy to be "a little more accommodative." The question is of course how much is "a little more."
One Euro coins are pictured after being minted at the Austrian national mint in Vienna in this file photo.
The week ahead will also see a host of Chinese economic feedback, with CPI and third-quarter GDP headlining the docket. Monday's consumer price data will be of considerable interest as a measure of scope China has to employ further stimulus measures. Headline inflation in September is expected to show 1.9 percent growth in annual terms, down from 2 percent in August. Gross Domestic Product probably declined to 7.4 percent growth in the third quarter, from 7.6 percent in the second-quarter. The latest GDP result, alongside data on Industrial Production, Retail Sales and Fixed Asset Investment will be released on Thursday.
China's export-reliant economy has begun to show signs of life according to the latest trade data from the General Administration of Customs on Saturday. Exports from the region climbed 9.9 percent in September from 2.7 percent in August, while imports return from negative growth to rise 2.4 percent after a 2.6 percent fall in August. China recorded an overall trade surplus of $US27.67 billion in September from a previous $US26.66 billion. Economist's anticipated a surplus of $US20.54 billion. Greater export growth signals an increase of foreign demand as central Banks from Europe and the US embark on new easing initiatives, while a return to positive import growth is a particularly good sign domestic demand is returning from sub-par levels.
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