Asian Session Note 10/12/12

EURUSD

Resistance: 1.2952 minor / 1.2992 moderate / 1.3030 moderate

Support: 1.2913 moderate / 1.2876 minor / 1.2833 minor

Yesterday’s strong bounce in EURUSD off the 34D EMA has managed to drag the daily stochastic into a bullish crossover though the macd indicator continues to point down. In the lower time frames we have a confluence of buys with stochastic overbought and macd pointing up in the 4H picture while the candles also have a ‘Mat Hold’ pattern. Hourly charts for their part has a bullish bias with stochastic pointing higher and macd flat just above the signal line. Immediate risk calls for a push past minor resistances at 1.2952 break of which opens the way back to 1.3029 the 61.8 Fib level of our sell-off from September 17.

EURJPY

Resistance: 101.85(99) strong / 102.28 minor / 102.81 minor

Support: 101.48 minor / 101.18 moderate / 100.93 minor

We have EURJPY rallying Thursday on risk appetite, though the strong open for US equities was steadily reversed through out the New York session ending the day flat. After pushing trhough the daily EMA lives from its bounce off the 55D EMA we now faced the 200D SMA as our immediate resistance level, 101.99. Daily indicators has stochastic pointing up but macd is flat below the signal. In the 4H picture candlesticks suggests a ‘Matt Hold’ pattern may be forming with stochastic just under the overbought level while macd is rising. Hourly charts for their part has macd flat above the signal while stochastic is poised to push overbought. For now we prefer remaining sidelined though a push past 100.99 will give us a clear bullish continuation ‘Matt Hold’ pattern and a buy signal above the 200D SMA.

GBPUSD

Resistance: 1.6062 moderate / 1.6089 minor / 1.6122 minor

Support: 1.6024 minor / 1.5983 minor / 1.5959 moderate

Cable saw a sharp bounce off the 55D EMA Thursday following the previous spinning top around the EMA line. Among indicators we now have daily stochastic pointing higher while macd is heading down. Note we continue to have a pattern of lower highs and lower lows. In intraday charts we have 4H stochastic just pushing overbought while macd is heading higher and candlesticks show indecision. Hourly charts for their part are heading the other direction with stochastic bearish and macd’s in the process of crossing lower. It appears we have a double top forming in the hourly picture. Given the mixed signals and immediate moderate resistance, 34D EMA we prefer looking for a rejection from the said level, 1.6062. Alternative entry will be a close below 1.6024 triggering your double top.

AUDUSD

Resistance: 1.0294(96) strong / 1.0322 moderate / 1.0373 minor

Support: 1.0247 moderate / 1.0221 minor / 1.0183 minor

Thursday’s close gave us a wick that is almost as big as our real body keeping the sell side as an option though indicators are now poised for a bullish confluence with stochastic on the brink of pushing overbought while the macd indicators has bottomed out. Note we have the 21D and 34D EMA for our strong immediate resistance at 1.0294(96). In the lower timeframes we have mixed signals as 4H stochastic comes off overbought areas while macd is pointing up. Hourly charts for their part has stochastic coming off oversold levels while macd is heading down. Given the mixed view we prefer playing the support and resistances looking for shorts from just under the strong 1.0294(96) resistance level though a close above the said price opens a run for 1.0322, just above the projected high.