USD/CAD – Breakout, Pullback, Range

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USD/CAD 4H Chart 9:20AM 10/8/2012

Breakout, NFP: The USD/CAD fell sharply on Friday after very impressive jobs data out of Canada. US NFP data was positive also, but risk-on trading actually puts pressure on the USD. The USD/CAD extended a breakout below a rising channel bringing the market also to 61.8% retracement before a pullback started.

Pullback: Looking at the 4H chart, the momentum is starting to be bearish after a period of bullish momentum during the second half of September. If the 4H RSI now stays under 60, preferably under 50, then bearish momentum would be apparent, and the USD/CAD would have the 0.9630-low in sight.

Range: After 1 pullback swing, the USD/CAD started a near-term range in the 1H chart between 0.98 psychological handle as resistance and 0.9770 as support. A break below 0.9770 returns focus on the current low at 0.9733 as well as the 0.97 psychological support.

On the otherhand, a break above 0.98 exposes 0.9826, 61.8% retracement, 200-hour simple moving average, and a declining trendline. The bearish oultook still has a chance until price pushes above 0.9840, a previous resistance pivot, at which point the bearish outlook would probably need to be shelved.

GBP/USD 1H Chart 9:26AM 10/8/2012

Fan Yang CMT is the Chief Technical Strategist, trader, educator and a of the main contributors to FXTimes – provider of Forex News, Analysis, Education, Videos, Charts, and other trading resources.

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