On my Tuesday report I said watch out for Thursdays weekly export sales report as it could be our next big update for beans. Reason, rumors circulated that China had been a big buyer last week of soybeans. Every time we heard a rumor China was in buying beans this year it was true. Well, export sales on the report came out at 1.296 million metric tons versus the three prior weeks of 799 thousand metric tons, 712 and 628. China was in for 1.025 million metric tons of the total versus the three prior weeks of 189 thousand metric tons, 237 and 340. As you can see the 1.025 is a monster size purchase. The question is will these kind of weekly purchases continue in the weeks ahead. We had a three-month low Wednesday of 15.05 basis November futures, which was our support price we gave on my Tuesday crop report. That was 2.90 cents off the years highs. So it's no surprise China saw value especially with beans available at 40% harvested. Last September beans exports weekly averaged 448 thousand metric tons and October 800 t.m.t. Beans broker three dollars last September and posted a one dollar rally in October as harvest demand entered. This September exports averaged 664 thousand metric tons, what will October unveil for exports now that we're down 2.50 per bushel as of today. Corn exports were a weak 327 thousand metric tons versus 400 last week, with China canceling 11000 metric ton order. Very weak sales. Like beans, corn too saw a big harvest break last September of two dollars with weak September exports and a surge in October exports as harvest availability arose and a 1.05 rally followed. No sign of demand yet but the caution flags are up for corn, now that beans had its big sales. Wheat exports again came in weak at 307 thousand metric sold down from the two prior weeks of 426 and 488. No big buyers for high-quality milling wheat for human food consumption, but at least four small buyers of low quality wheat more suitable for the animal feed ration. Next week's trade is compromised by the shadow of an impending Thursday 7:30 AM central time USDA monthly crop report. The report will make adjustments on corn and beans production and ending stocks inventory. The common thinking is that it will be friendly to lightly bullish for corn as production may be unchanged to slightly higher after September gave us a 1% increase in the good to excellent condition and ending stocks lower after last Friday's quarterly stocks report showed less corn on hand September 1 than had been thought. Beans look slightly negative report day as the 5% increase in the crop condition for September is suggesting a higher production number and higher ending stocks after a bigger quarterly stocks number last Friday. We should get the pre-report industry estimates on Monday giving us an idea of how the trade is positioned. Technicals read like this. December corn support is 7.45 then 7.05 with resistance 7.60. A close over and 7.85 is next then 8.00. November bean support is still 15.05 then 14.85. Resistance 15.90 then 16.20. December wheat support is 8.55. A close under and 8.15 is next with resistance 8.90 then 9.20. Note, you can go to the Alpari-us.com website and pull up all the past reports going into August for the grain markets. Click Alpari Academy then click grains.
The article is provided by Alpari
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