The Australian Dollar opens marginally higher today at 1.0230. The case for Tuesday’s 25 basis point cut to the official cash rate was underpinned after yesterday’s sluggish retail sales data which showed only a modest increase of 0.2 per cent for the month of August. Domestic interest rates are at a 3-year low of 3.25 per cent which has taken some of the wind out of the AUD’s sails. The retail sales data was weaker than expected sending the Aussie on another intraday downward spiral briefly hitting a fresh one-month of 1.0181 against the Greenback. There is some buying interest around these levels and the local unit hit a 24-hour high of 1.0272 late in New York trade. Overall, the Aussie remains under pressure at the moment weighed down by falling export prices and a slowdown in China
We expect a range today of 1.0180 to 1.0255
New Zealand Dollar
The New Zealand Dollar opens higher today against the Greenback at 0.8220. The local market took the kiwi down to a three-week low of 0.8165 ahead of some key risk events overnight. Both the European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of England (BoE) left interest rates unchanged and their asset purchase programs steady buoying the Euro currency and in turn, the Aussie and the Kiwi – the latter managing an overnight peak of 0.8233 late in New York trade. With the local unit continually running into resistance around the 0.8250 area, a further correction down towards US80 cents cannot be ruled out. Meanwhile, the kiwi opens little-changed against its trans-Tasman rival at 0.8015.
We expect a range today of 0.8160 to 0.8240
Great British Pound:
In an announcement made overnight Bank of England officials voted to maintain the current benchmark rate at 0.5 percent whilst also voting to complete their latest round of stimulus this month, marking the completion of the 375 billion pound bond purchase program. In a decision designed at maintaining price stability, the risks to inflation as a result of loose policy was seen as a major contributing factor which has seen the most recent attempts of stimulating economic activity concluded. In a distinct move higher against its US Counterpart the Sterling touched highs of 1.6202 as it opens more than a full cent stronger this morning at 1.6194. Meanwhile on the cross the Sterling opens higher also against both the Aussie (1.5809) and the Kiwi (1.9696)
We expect a range today of 1.5770 – 1.5840
In a relatively busy overnight session US government data showed 367 000 people filed for jobless claims last week, below the median forecasted number of 370 000. Setting the tone for tonight’s non-farm payroll release, investors are eager to see an improvement in the underlying unemployment rate which has remained frustratingly sticky at 8.1 percent. Marking the second last labour market result before elections begin on Nov. 6, should Mitt Romney defeat Barack Obama, investors are expecting a lot to change given Romney’s very public acknowledgement that he is not a fan of Quantitative easing. Meanwhile in Europe overnight the ECB announced that it remains ready to start buying government bonds as soon as the necessary conditions are met. Increasing pressures on Spain to make a decision on a Bailout sooner rather than later Mario Draghi’s stance was well received by investors who drove the shared unit higher, reaching an overnight peak of 1.3018 against its US Counterpart. This morning sees the Euro open stronger at 1.3018 with the emphasis likely to remain on Spain leading up to the first of three European Summits kicking off Oct 18.
AIG Construction Index,
NZD: No Data Today
Monetary Policy Statement, Overnight Call Rate, BOJ Press Conference
GBP: No Data Today
German Factory Orders m/m
Unemployment rate m/m, Non-Farm employment change