The Aussie dollar continued its recent slide against the Greenback yesterday after Australia posted its widest trade deficit since March 2008. In a clear sign that the commodities boom is waning official figures showed the deficit widened to $2 Billion in August following a 3 percent decline in export earnings. Slumping to late afternoon lows of 1.0195 against its US Counterpart there now appears some clear ground lower in the short-term towards support at 1.0170. Adding to speculation that further rates cuts from the RBA aren’t too far away the Australian unit opens this morning at its lowest levels since September 6th at 1.0212. Meanwhile on the horizon retail sales which are expected to be released at 11:30am this morning are likely to provide further downward pressures should they disappoint.
We expect a range today of 1.0160 – 1.0250
New Zealand Dollar
Doing the New Zealand dollar very few favours during intraday trade yesterday China’s purchasing managers index fell to 53.7 in September from 56.3 in August. In a release which will only add to concerns that China will struggle to achieve their annualised growth goal of 7.5 percent, such concerns are likely to weigh on the higher-yielding unit over the months ahead. Whilst improved jobless figures and a better than expected service industry result in the US did eventuate they were not sufficient enough to send the New Zealand dollar back into positive territory with lows of 0.8173 against its US Counterpart having been tested over the past 24 hours. Opening this morning a staggering 80 basis points lower the Kiwi currently buys 81.91 US Cents.
We expect a range today of 0.8160 – 0.8230
Great British Pound:
The Great British Pound opens half a cent weaker against its US Counterpart at 1.6072 this morning. Despite receiving positive leads in the form of better than expected services and employment data in the US investors instead took the opportunity to the sell the Sterling taking it to overnight lows of 1.6065. Locally signs of a deepening recession once again spooked investors after Britain’s’ service sector shed jobs for the first time in 10 months as the Services PMI Index dropped to 52.2 from 53.7 in August. Meanwhile this morning despite the woes of the Sterling against the Greenback the Great British Pound opens noticeably stronger against both the Aussie (1.5734) and the Kiwi (1.9614)
We expect a range today of 1.5700 – 1.5780
US Stocks received a boost overnight after ADP Employer Services predicted companies added 162 000 jobs last month comfortably beating the median forecast of 140 000. Whilst such figures were seen as a positive by markets the real test awaits on Friday where the official unemployment rate is expected to increase slightly from 8.1 percent to 8.2 percent as US Policy Makers continue to grapple with a Labour Market still yet to show any real signs of life. In other happenings a disappointing Chinese PMI read was offset by a positive ISM Non-manufacturing PMI figure which showed the services sector, which accounts for 90 percent of the economy expanded at the fastest pace in six months. Meanwhile jumping across to Europe and data releases remain few and far between as investors continue to put a relatively positive spin based on a relatively negative economic reality. Trading between a 24 hour range of (1.2876 – 1.2936) against its US Counterpart the Euro opens only marginally weaker this morning at 1.2903 as markets await Policy announcements out of the ECB this evening.
NZD: No Data Today
No Data Today
GBP: Official Bank Rate, MPC Rate Statement
ECB Press conference, Minimum bid rate
Unemployment claims, FOMC Meeting Minutes
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