Asian Session Notes 10/03/12

USDCHF

Resistance: 0.9388(91) moderate / 0.9433(41) moderate / 0.9485 minor

Support: 0.9385 minor / 0.9331 moderate / 0.9283 minor

Tuesday saw a hammer at the close of USDCHF with indicators still looking mixed as stochastic heads lower while macd is pushing up. Note we are in a technical correction in the big picture our objective a pullback to the 38.2 Fib of the sell-off from July 24 though we face daily EMA lines immediately on top of prices. From the lower time frames we have mixed signals from the 4H picture with stochastic rising and macd’s heading lower. Hourly charts for their part has a confluence of buys with stochastic overbought and macd’s rising. Given the presence of daily EMA lines we prefer getting a close above 0.9388(91) the 21D EMA first or a buy on dips to the 0.9331 region.

EURUSD

Resistance: 1.2912 minor / 1.2943 moderate / 1.2967 minor

Support: 1.2875(77) moderate / 1.2841 minor / 1.2803 moderate

Euro appears to have gone though stops in early New York trade before settling down for a shooting star in the daily candlesticks. Prices at this point are once again just above the 21D EMA 1.2875(77) with indicators remaining mixed as stochastic continues to head up while macd is dropping. In intraday charts we have mixed signals as we see a bearish stochastic in the 4H level while macd is rising. Hourly charts has a bearish macd with stochastic at risk of crossing lower. Given the mixed signals we prefer remaining sidelined though an hourly close below 1.2875(77) should pave the way for further weakness.

GBPUSD

Resistance: 1.6235 minor / 1.6169 minor / 1.6186

Support: 0.6112 minor / 1.6062(72) moderate / 1.6020 minor

In the end Tuesdays saw a gracestone doji at its close with market pulling back to the 21D EMA line at the close. Note the long wick we now have for our weekly candle reinforces the notion of a bearish follow through to the evening star in weekly charts. Daily indicators has a confluence of bears with stochastic oversold and macd’s dropping. In the lower time frames we have signals for both 4H and hourly chart. In the former we have stochastic oversold and macd in the process of crossing lower while hourly indicators also have an oversold stochastic though macd is already bearish. Immediate risk calls for a bear market. Consider shorts on an hourly close below 1.6112.

AUDUSD

Resistance: 1.0290(93) moderate / 1.0232 moderate / 1.0350

Support: 1.0250 moderate / 1.0211 moderate / 1.0165 strong

Aussy saw a sharp sell-off following a surprise rate cut from the RBA dragging daily EMA lines into new dead crosses with prices now under the 200D SMA forming a double top in the weekly scale. At the moment we have reported bis at 1.0250 though indicators remain bearish, daily stochastic has pushed to oversold levels while macd is dropping. In the lower time frames we have 4H stochastic oversold while hourly stochastic is poised to eased off below 20. The macd indicators for both timeframes is also bearish. Immediate risk calls for a push down though we need to see a close well below 1.0250 before shorting. Take too long to break lower and we will focus on getting buy signals in the lower time frames.

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