Asian Session Note 10/02/12

AUDJPY

Resistance: 81.02 minor / 81.24(32) moderate / 81.56 minor

Support: 80.74 minor / 80.45 minor / 80.23 minor

In the end we saw AUDJPY with a long wick as we retreated in New York trade with the daily EMA lines capping yesterdays rally. At the moment we have daily indicators with mixed signals as stochastic continues to point ip while macd is under its signal line. In intraday charts we have mixed signals from the 4H stochastic and macd, with the former just crossing lower and previous candles mostly indecisive. From the hourly picture we have a confluence of busy as macd’s cross up while stochastic is poised to push overbought. We retain our buy on dips view from New York though our objective now will be a mere retest of the daily EMA lines. Note we have an event risk at 0430GMT with the RBA rate decision.

EURAUD

Resistance: 1.2448 moderate / 1.2485 moderate / 1.2511 minor

Support: 1.2411 minor / 1.2373 moderate / 1.2329 minor

We have EURAUD just under the 61.8 Fib retracement level of our sell-off from May 18 with daily indicators showing mixed signals the stochastic pointing up while macd is heading lower. Note we have the daily EMA lines just under the current levels, 21D EMA at 1.2373 a moderate support. In the lower time frames we have mixed signals with stochastic coming off overbought levels while macd is pushing higher in the 4H charts. Hourly indicators has a flat macd while stochastic is coming off overbought levels. Note we are also forming a double top in the hourly picture, given the hourly indicators this suggests a possible short from under 1.2448 for at least the pattern trigger at 1.2411 possibly on to the 1.2373 region.

AUDUSD

Resistance: 1.0380 minor / 1.0402 moderate / 1.0436 minor

Support: 1.0350 minor / 1.0325 moderate / 1.0288 minor

Given the strong start in equities for the quarter we saw most of the majors pushing for highs in European trade before settling down by the close of US markets. Aussy for its part ended up with a high wave spinning top for the day after getting rejected from the 21D and 34D EMA. Indicators for their part has a confluence of bears with stochastic poised to push oversold and macd dropping. In the lower timeframes we have a confluence of bears in 4H charts with stochastic just crossing lower. Hourly charts for their part are bullish with stochastic coming off oversold levels and macd’s flat. Immediate risk calls for a push up though we prefer looking for a short from under 1.0402, just around your daily 21D and 34D EMA.

GBPUSD

Resistance: 1.6162 minor / 1.6183 minor / 1.6126 minor

Support: 1.6112 minor / 1.6072 minor / 1.6020 minor

After Friday’s sell-off we seem to have Cable having trouble in generating a follow through decline with monday seemingly oscillating around the 21D EMA 1.6126. Among indicators we have a bearish daily macd while stochastic is in oversold areas. From the lower time-frames we have a confluence of bears with 4H stochastic poised to push oversold while macd is dropping. Hourly charts for their part has just cross lower in stochastic though remains flat for macd. Overall bias is to see further weakness for GBPUSD though there is little sense of urgency. Look for shorts from just under 1.6162 or on a close below the 1.6112 price point.

EURUSD

Resistance: 1.2907 minor / 1.2943 moderate / 1.2970 minor

Support: 1.2877 minor / 1.2841 minor / 1.2800 moderate

Monday saw Euro rally covering its bearish gap from the open and pushing up above the EMA lines following the failure to push under the 34D EMA and 200D SMA then. Among indicators we have mixed signals with the daily macd heading lower and stochastic pointing up. From the lower time frames we have mixed signals as well with 4H stochastic crossing lower and macd’s heading up while hourly charts has a flat macd and rising stochastic. Given the rejection from the 38.2 Fib of our sell-off in the previous week we prefer taking the sell-side ideally from just under 1.2943, the said Fib or on a break and close of the 1.2877 support area. Note with the mixed signals there’s little sense of urgency.

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