AUD/USD – Trying to Break out of Congestion

Forex Technical Update

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AUD/USD 4H Chart 9/25/2012 3:13PM EDT

The AUD/USD was lacking direction after a false head and shoulders pattern. Instead the 4H chart shows the pair trading between converging trendlines. As we wind down the 9/25 US session, the market is in a bout of risk-aversion, giving strength to USD and JPY. The AUD/USD is seen testing the rising trendline, trying to break out of this congestion. A break below this week’s low so far at 1.0385 is probably needed. If this happens, a swing projection targets 1.0325 area, with a support pivot right below at 1.0321. The next pivot below that is at 1.0274.

A look at the 1H chart shows a slight bearish bias developing indeed this week as price action remained under the 200-hour SMA and the RSI remained under 60 after after kissing 30 on Monday (9/24). The RSI falling back below 40 and tagging 30 would continue to reflect this bearish bias as the market attempts to break lower toward the 1.0320-1.0325 area.

A rally back above 1.0445 either after a failure to make a new weekly low, or right away after putting in a new week-low, would reflect continuing choppy, directionless market, taking away the bearish bias the market is starting to develop so far this week.

AUD/USD 1H Chart 9/25/2012 3:17PM EDT

Fan Yang CMT is a forex trader, analyst, educator and Chief Technical Strategist for FXTimes – provider of Forex News, Analysis, Education, Videos, Charts, and other trading resources.

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