GBP/USD jumped to as high as 1.6255 last week and showed further sign of acceleration. Initial bias remains on the upside this week for 1.6300 resistance sustained break there will have larger bullish implication and would target 1.6618/6746 resistance zone next. On the downside, break of 1.6067 is needed to signal short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish even in case of retreat.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidations to long term down trend from 2.1161, no change in this view. There are various interpretations on the pattern from 1.3503 but after all, as long as 1.5234 support holds. On the upside, above 1.6300 will likely bring further rise to 1.7043 and above.
In the longer term picture, the complicated triangle pattern from 1.3503 argues that it's the fourth wave of the five wave sequence from 2.1161. That means, firstly, 1.3503 shouldn't be the end point of the downtrend yet and a new low is expected. However, secondly, as the next fall could be the fifth wave, the breach of 1.3503 could be shallow and brief from long term point of view and we'll then see a more sustainable rebound.
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