AUD/USD jumped to as high as 1.0624 last week and breached 1.0612 resistance. Current development suggests that rise from 0.9588 has resumed and initial bias remains on the upside. Next target will be 1.0852 key resistance level next. On the downside, though, break of 1.0420 support will suggest short term topping and turn focus back to 1.0165 support instead.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.1079 high are treated as a consolidation pattern in the larger up trend, in form of a triangle. Fall from 1.0612 could be the fifth and final leg in this pattern. No change in these views. The break of 1.0612 resistance argues that the consolidation pattern might be finished at 1.0165 already. Break of 1.0852 resistance will indicate that the larger up trend is resuming and would pave the way to another high above 1.1079. On the upside, break of 1.0165 will instead bring another decline to extend the consolidation pattern.
In the longer term picture, whole up trend from 0.4773 (01 low) extended to a point where it just missed 100% projection of 0.4773 to 0.9849 from 0.6008 at 1.1084. At this point, there is prospect for a lengthier medium term consolidation. But there is no indication of long term reversal yet. We'll stay bullish as long as 0.8066 support holds and expect an eventual break of 1.1084 to 138.2% projection at 1.3023, which is close to 1.3 psychological level, in the long term.
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