USD/CAD Weekly Outlook

USD/CAD's decline continued last week and accelerated to as low as 0.9633. Such decline was admittedly deeper than expected. And as long as 0.9842 minor resistance holds, near term outlook will stay bearish . Current decline could target a test on 0.9406 low next. Though, break of 0.9842 will indicate short term bottoming and bring rebound back to 0.9948 resistance and above.

In the bigger picture, so far, price actions from 1.0656 are still corrective looking even though fall from 1.0445 was deeper than expected. At this point, we'd still favor any downside attempt to be contained above 0.9406 low and bring another rebound to 38.2% retracement of 1.3063 to 0.9406 at 1.0803. Nonetheless, we'd not too confident on this view and will pay attention to whether current decline would accelerate or decelerate to confirm.

In the longer term picture, there is no clear indication that the long term down trend from 2002 high of 1.6196 has reversed. and there is no change in the long term bearish view so far. A break of 0.9056 low is still anticipated after all the consolidative price actions from 0.9406 complete.