EUR/GBP Weekly Outlook

EUR/GBP's rally continued last week as expected and reached as high as 0.8114, meeting mentioned target of 100% projection of 0.7755 to 0.7962 from 0.7886 at 0.8093. Initial bias remains on the upside this week for 0.8152 key resistance next. On the downside, below 0.8044 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But downside should be contained by 0.7962 resistance turned support and bring rally resumption.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.9799 are treated as a long term consolidation pattern with fall from 0.9083 as the third leg. Strong support is expected inside 0.7693/8186 support zone to conclude the consolidation. The break of the falling channel from 0.9083 serves as the first signal of completion of fall from 0.9083, as well as the consolidation from 0.9799. Break of 0.8152 will further affirm this case and would target a test on 0.9083 key resistance next.

In the long term picture, there is initial sign that EUR/GBP is finally drawing strong support above 0.7693 as expected. And that means, the long term up trend from 0.5680 could extend to a new high above 0.9799. We'd pay close attention to whether the current rebound could gather sustainable momentum. However, note again that sustained break of 0.7693 will bring deeper fall back to 0.6535/7258 support zone.