Australian Dollar Outlook - 09/11/2012

Bell FX Currency Outlook: The Australian Dollar is relatively unchanged this morning following a night of lacklustre trade in the currency markets.
Australia: The US dollar strengthened modestly with profit taking being the session's main theme as risk appetite waned. Markets are nervous ahead of Wednesday's German Constitutional Court ruling on the legality of the European bailout fund and the Fed's FOMC meeting on Thursday.

In contrast to the subdued tone in FX markets, spot iron ore prices rallied 6%, the largest one-day rally in percentage terms since December 2008.
What this information has in store for the AUD is hard to tell given the volatility seen in recent weeks. China's trade data showed the surplus hasn't changed. Australian Housing Finance fell by 1% for July which was in line with predictions.

In Australia today, NAB's Business Survey for August is due. July's release revealed a pull-back in Business Conditions to an index of -3, consistent with GDP growth of about 2.5% (below trend).

Business Confidence, a measure of how businesses expect their industry to perform ahead, improved to an index of 4, in line with the long run average. We see the AUD trading in a pretty tight range today in the 1.0300's.

Majors: In a mixed night, the US dollar found strength and oil prices were moderately stronger as the effect of expectations for further monetary stimulus from the Federal Reserve was moderated by weak Chinese data.

Spot gold fell modestly as investors took profits but prices remain near a 6-month high on hopes of further policy action in the US. Base metal prices were broadly stronger overnight while agricultural commodities prices were mixed.

Japan's June Quarter GDP was revised down to a rise of 0.2% while the GDP deflator fell in a sign of ongoing deflation in Japan.
Tonight in America, the NFIB Small Business survey is due and the market is looking for a steady result after a pull-back two months ago and then a sideways movement in July. Also in the US, the Trade Balance is coming out with expectations for a virtually unchanged deficit of $44.4bn. Greece has a bill auction and Holland is to sell bonds.
Economic Calendar
11 SEPT AU Nab Business Conditions/Confidence
JN Machine Tool Orders
UK Trade Balance
US Trade Balance

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