USD/CHF Weekly Outlook

USD/CHF's fall from 0.9971 continued last week as expected and reached as low as 0.9443 so far. Initial bias remains on the downside this week for 0.9420 key support level next. Sustained break there will pave the way for net important support level at 0.8930. On the upside, break of 0.9580 minor resistance is needed to signal short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish even in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 0.7065 is viewed as a corrective move and could have just completed after hitting 0.9916 resistance (61.8% retracement of 1.1730 to 0.7065 at 0.9948). Break of 0.9420 should confirm reversal and should at least bring decline to 38.2% retracement of 0.7065 to 0.9971 at 0.8861. In case of rebound, we'd expect upside to be limited below 0.9971 and bring another fall.

In the longer term picture, long term down trend from 2000 high of 1.8305 doesn't look completed yet but whether a new low below 0.7065 would be seen is somewhat irrelevant even to a long term trader. The point to note is that medium term reversal is imminent after hitting 0.9916/48 cluster resistance. The current development would favor at least some more sideway trading between 0.7065/9971 from long term perspective.