Friday's jobs report will be a crucial input into the Fed's decision on Sept. 13. A weak report (sub-75,000 job growth and rise in the unemployment rate) would fuel expectations of another round of quantitative easing, or QE. The reverse is true as well, as a strong report (greater than 150,000 job growth and fall in unemployment rate) would reduce the likelihood of QE3 at the next FOMC meeting.
Economists on Wall Street expect the jobs number to rise by 125,000, while the unemployment rate holds steady at 8.3 percent.
The other headline event this week is the European Central Bank's interest rate decision and press conference, on Sept. 6. Most expect the Bank to disappoint markets by providing only details about how it might buy bonds in the future instead of a grand plan for immediate and massive purchases.
ECB President Mario Draghi is likely to restate that the central bank will not act until the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) or European Stability Mechanism (ESM) have bought bonds, which could be months away. He may also hint that the ECB is not prepared to buy limitless quantities of bonds and eschew calls for the bank to set an explicit cap on peripheral bond spreads.
Oh, and the Democratic National Convention is finally here after the Republican National Convention wrapped up in Tampa, Fla. last week. Michelle Obama's Tuesday night speech will command the spotlight, while President Barack Obama won't formally accept his party's nomination at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, N.C., until Thursday.
Below are entries on the economic calendar Sept. 4-7. All listed times are EDT.
All Day - Vehicle sales should come in at an annualized rate of 14.2 million units in August. That would be up slightly from the 14.05 run rate recorded in July.
10:00 a.m. - Economists are looking for construction spending growth of 0.4 percent in July, in line with the increase in June. As in prior months, the rise likely centered in the private sector component, with gains in residential and nonresidential construction. However, this is likely to be partly offset by a further decrease in the public sector component.
10:00 a.m. - The manufacturing ISM has printed below the break-even level of 50 for the past two months, but it has done so only barely with readings of 49.7 in June and 49.8 in July. Economists look for the index to edge up to 50 in August.
Germany -- German Finance Minister Schaeuble and European Central Bank Executive Board member Joerg Asmussen attend Banking congress in Frankfurt.
Germany -- German Finance Minister Schaeuble and Greek Finance Minister Yannis Stournaras meet on Crisis in Berlin.
Italy -- Italian Prime Minister Monti meets French President Francois Hollande.
E17 - European Union Council President Herman Van Rompuy meets German Chancellor Angela Merkel in Berlin.
E17 -- ECB Executive Board Member Joerg Asmussen speaks on Banking Structure and Banking Culture in Germany.
E17 - July PPI.
Switzerland - Q2 GDP.
Australia - Reserve Bank of Australia cash rate for September.
7:00 a.m. -- Mortgage Bankers Association's mortgage index for the week ending Sept. 1.
8:30 a.m. - Labor productivity for the second quarter is likely to be revised higher to 1.8 percent from the 1.6 percent initially reported. Higher productivity, in turn, should lead to lower unit labor costs, which are defined as hourly compensation divided by output per hour. Compensation in Q2 was revised slightly upward; thus, unit labor costs likely dropped to 1.5 percent for Q2 from the initial estimate of 1.7 percent.
9:45 a.m. -- August ISM New York manufacturing index.
Poland - September base rate announcement.
Thailand - September benchmark interest rate.
Canada - September interest rate announcement.
E17 -- EC President Herman Van Rompuy meets French President Francois Hollande.
E17 - July retail sales.
E17 - Final August composite PMI index, services index.
Australia - Q2 GDP.
Finland - Q2 GDP, final reading.
Spain - August services PMI index.
Italy - August services PMI index.
France - August services PMI index, final reading.
Germany - August services PMI index, final reading.
Switzerland - August CPI.
Ireland - August unemployment rate.
7:30 a.m. - Challenger job cuts for August.
8:15 a.m. - ADP National Employment report should show that the private sector added 140,000 jobs in August, following a 163,000 gain in July.
8:30 a.m. -- Economists look for initial jobless claims to edge down to 370,000 for the week ending Sept. 1, from 374,000 in the prior week.
10:00 a.m. -- Economists expect the ISM non-manufacturing index to come in basically flat at 52.5 in August, from the 52.6 recorded in the prior month. The early regional service sector surveys for August have been slightly more upbeat. The Dallas Fed services survey points to a modest pick-up in the ISM non-manufacturing index. The alternative Richmond Fed survey has been more downbeat in recent months, but did rebound in August.
11:00 a.m. - Crude oil inventories for the week ending Sept. 1.
Germany -- Chancellor Merkel and Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy talks on Euro Crisis in Madrid.
Egypt - September deposit rate.
Sweden -- September interest rate announcement.
Netherlands -- Prime Minister Mark Rutte and other leaders debate about how to handle the economic crisis in Amsterdam.
Norway - Central Bank Governor Oystein Oslen speaks at Sparebanken Narvik, Norway.
Japan -- Bank of Japan Governor Masaaki Shirakawa to speak.
UK - September Bank of England asset purchase decision and bank rate decision.
E17 - ECB September interest rate announcement and press conference.
E17 - Q2 GDP, second release.
Germany - July factory orders.
Greece - June unemployment rate.
8:30 a.m. - Economists look for August employment report to show that labor conditions remain challenging. Employers likely added 125,000 jobs in August and the unemployment rate likely held at 8.3 percent. The public sector is likely to continue to cut jobs; economists forecast government job cuts of 12,000. This means private payroll growth of 137,000. This report will be a crucial input for the Federal Reserve's decision on Sept. 13. A weak report (sub-75,000 job growth and rise in the unemployment rate) would fuel expectations of another round of quantitative easing, or QE. The reverse is true as well, as a strong report (greater than 150,000 job growth and fall in unemployment rate) would reduce the likelihood of QE3 at the next FOMC meeting.
Spain -- Cabinet meet.
E17 -- ECB Vice President Vítor Constâncio speaks on "A Monetary and Banking Union for Europe" in Amsterdam.
Mexico -- September overnight rate.
Greece - Q2 GDP, final reading.
Switzerland - August unemployment rate.
France -- July trade balance.
Germany - July trade balance.
Germany - July industrial output.
UK- July industrial output, manufacturing output.
Sources: Central banks, European Commission, Reuters, Bank of America Merrill Lynch, Market News, Capital Economics, Nomura.
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