Australian Dollar Outlook - 09/03/2012

Bell FX Currency Outlook: The Australian Dollar is changed following the Jackson Hole symposium with US Fed Chairman Bernanke announcing few surprises.

Australia: Currency markets initially received Bernanke's comments as implying no imminent expansion of the QE programme. A reassessment saw currencies stabilise from an immediate sell-off.

Elsewhere, Chinese official manufacturing PMI showed the lowest outturn in almost nine months. The China growth story is continuing to lose momentum.

The AUD's movement will be further subject to some "wait and see" as markets anticipate a "no change" on domestic interest rates when the Reserve Bank of Australia meets tomorrow afternoon. A busy week for Australian markets ahead.

The AIG Manufacturing Index for August is due this morning, along with Domestic Retail Sales data at 11:30am. Also today, Companies operating Profits and Inventories are to be released, these figures form part of the GDP which is scheduled for Wednesday.

Thursday will see domestic employment figures, with Trade Balance due on Thursday. A steady day with the US on Holiday for Labor Day.

Majors: Equity markets were buoyed on Friday night after the Jackson Hole Central Bank Symposium resulted in the door being opened a little wider by Bernanke's speech. He indicated a 3rd of quantitative easing (Q3) with no timing set for its inception.

Details that concerned the Chairman most were the labor market and that the 8.3% unemployment rate remains higher than most FOMC participants see as longer run normal value. US bond yields fell on comments with the 10 year down to 1.56% and the USD eased marginally. Equities fnded higher.

Oil prices were also stronger on the back of further stimulus expectations with Brent closing 1.6% higher at USD 11436 per barrel. Spain remains under pressure and is struggling to implement austerity measures to reduce its debt burden.

European equities were mixed with the Euro Stoxx up 1.5% to 2,441, the German Dax also ended the session 1.1% higher at 2,971 whilst the FTSE ended marginally lower at 5,711. US non farm payrolls are released Friday preceded by US ISM and interest rate announcements all around the world.
Economic Calendar
03 SEPT AU TD Securities Inflation AUG
US Labor Day Holiday
EC PMI Manufacturing AUG
UK PMI Manufacturing AUG

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