GBP/USD continued to consolidate below 1.5912 last week. Initial bias remains neutral this week for some more sideway trading. But in case of another retreat, downside should be contained above 1.5673 support and bring another rise. Break of 1.5912 will confirm resumption of whole rebound from 1.5268 and will target 1.6300 key resistance.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidations to long term down trend from 2.1161, no change in this view. There are various interpretations on the pattern from 1.3503 but after all, as long as 1.5234 support holds, such consolidation isn't completed. More choppy sideway trading is in favor inside range of 1.5234/6300. On the downside, break of 1.5234 will signal that the larger down trend is resuming and should at least target a test on 1.3503/4229 support zone. Though, break of 1.6300 will bring further rally to 1.6476 and above to extend the consolidation pattern.
In the longer term picture, the complicated triangle pattern from 1.3503 argues that it's the fourth wave of the five wave sequence from 2.1161. That means, firstly, 1.3503 shouldn't be the end point of the downtrend yet and a new low is expected. However, secondly, as the next fall could be the fifth wave, the breach of 1.3503 could be shallow and brief from long term point of view and we'll then see a more sustainable rebound.
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