USD/CHF's fall from 0.9971 short term top extends to as low as 0.9502 last week. Initial bias remains on the downside this week for 0.9420 key support level next. On the upside, above 0.9635 will argue that a short term bottom is in place, possibly on bullish convergence condition in 4 hours MACD and would bring rebound back towards 0.9799 resistance.
In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 0.7065 is viewed as a corrective move and could have just completed after hitting 0.9916 resistance (61.8% retracement of 1.1730 to 0.7065 at 0.9948). Break of 0.9420 should confirm reversal and should at least bring decline to 38.2% retracement of 0.7065 to 0.9971 at 0.8861. However, note again that sustain trading above 0.9916/48 will start to argue that whole down trend from 1.8305 (2000 high) has completed and will bring stronger rally through parity to 61.8% projection of 0.7065 to 0.9594 from 0.8930 at 1.0493 instead.
In the longer term picture, long term down trend from 2000 high of 1.8305 doesn't look completed yet but whether a new low below 0.7065 would be seen is somewhat irrelevant even to a long term trader. The point to note is that medium term reversal is imminent after hitting 0.9916/48 cluster resistance and the structure of the next fall will decide whether a retest of 0.7065 would be seen in medium term. Meanwhile, decisive break of mentioned 0.9916/48 cluster resistance will raise the odds the such down trend is already completed and would pave the way back to 1.1288/3283 resistance zone.
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