AUD/USD's fall from 1.0612 continued last week as expected and reached as low as 1.0276 so far. Downside momentum is a bit unconvincing. But we'll hold to our bearish view as long as 1.0410 minor resistance holds. That is, rise fro 0.9588 is completed at 1.0612 already. And, fall from there should extend to 1.0176 support and below. Though, break of 1.041 will dampen our view and turn focus back to 1.0612 resistance instead.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.1079 high are treated as a consolidation pattern in the larger up trend, in form of a triangle. Fall from 1.0612 could be the fifth and final leg in this pattern. Hence, firstly, such decline from 1.0612 is expected to extend further lower ahead to 0.9968 support and below. Secondly, downside is eventually expected to be contained above 0.9588 key support. After that, we might see an upside breakout for a new high above 1.1079 after the consolidation completes.
In the longer term picture, whole up trend from 0.4773 (01 low) extended to a point where it just missed 100% projection of 0.4773 to 0.9849 from 0.6008 at 1.1084. At this point, there is prospect for a lengthier medium term consolidation. But there is no indication of long term reversal yet. We'll stay bullish as long as 0.8066 support holds and expect an eventual break of 1.1084 to 138.2% projection at 1.3023, which is close to 1.3 psychological level, in the long term.
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