GBP/USD continued to gyrate in range below 1.5767 last week and near term outlook remains neutral. On the upside, break of 1.5777 resistance will confirm resumption of rebound from 1.5268 and should target 61.8% retracement of 1.6300 to 1.5268 at 1.5906. On the downside, however, below 1.5489 support will turn focus back to 1.5392. Break there will indicate that rebound from 1.5268 has completed and pave the way to retest this support instead.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidations to long term down trend from 2.1161, no change in this view. Such consolidation could be in form of a triangle that's completed at 1.6300 but this is not supported by a break of 1.5234 support yet. Hence, outlook remains neutral. On the downside, break of 1.5234 will add much credence to the case of long term down trend resumption and should at least target a test on 1.3503/4229 support zone. Though, break of 1.6300 will bring further rally to 1.6476 and above to extend the consolidation pattern.
In the longer term picture, the corrective nature of the multi-decade advance from 1.0463 (85 low) to 2.1161 as well as the impulsive nature of the fall from there suggests that GBP/USD is now in an early stage of a long term down trend. Another low below 1.3503 is anticipated after consolidation from there is confirmed to be completed.
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