Thursdays weekly export sales report shed some light on pre harvest demand. Wheat export sales last week for future shipment were 396 T.M.T. down 40% from the week prior and 26% under our four week average. Though ending stocks are shrinking they are still more than ample. These were disappointing export sales but eyes are shifting towards the new crop year and weather. The U.S. starts planting of its winter wheat crop in September. The trade will watch its key producing states weather in Kansas, Colorado, Oklahoma, and Texas. Russia and the 28 European nations plant their new crop in September as well. So, a new world wheat crop is about to get underway with weather on early emergence a key pricing factor. Corn export sales were 122 t.m.t. for the old marketing year ending august 31st down 31% from the week prior. New crop year export sales for September 1 on out delivery were 130 t.m.t. Both were very low with key importer China in just nibbling. Other than last week's large corn purchase by drought stricken Mexico, all other importers appear to be waiting for lower harvest cash prices. Soy bean export sales for old crop year shipment came in a marketing year low 97 t.m.t. but new crop year exports were 924 t.m.t. with China in for 585 of the total. The strength in bean prices Tuesday and Wednesday were being credited to talk china had been in buying and they were right. Note, with South America now sold out of their crop, the US is the sole port of origin of the world to buy beans from. We shouldn't expect record new crop exports as this year's drought leaves us short of exportable beans. But we have to assume at harvest time availability we will meet much of our regular business. So expect to hear about exports with market movement on it. South America planting of beans for their new crop year begins in September. I would expect importers to begin buying their beans in October, November, and December for their early harvest delivery dates of late February through March. This leaves importers buying US beans at harvest for October to February delivery. Well the question remains, what is in store for the rest of the month, now that we do not have another monthly crop report by the U.S.D.A. to adjust supply side production numbers until September and weathers effect on yields largely over. Are we going to continue trading the old bullish news and move to new highs or adjust lower off post growing season, pre -harvest pressure psychology. I feel there is a better chance of a break now but let the charts guide us . December corn resistance on the upside is 8.25. A close over, go long as new highs are certain . Support is 7.90 then 7.75. A close under 7.75 sets up 6.90 as next stop. That's about a 40% correction of the summer rally and reasonable for the market before we enter the strong cash market buying during harvest as end users will be fighting over product coverage heading into next years historically tight inventory prospects. November bean resistance is 16.40 then 16.50. A close over 16.50 go long as 17.00 is next and possibly 17.25. Support is 15.90 then 15.50 . A close under 15.50 sets up 14.90 which is about a 40% correction on the summer rally. Long time traders know 35 to 40% retracements are common when a trend ends. December wheat resistance is way up at 9.35. Support is 8.80. A close under sets up 8.20 as next support. Those interested in trading at Alpari and using me as your broker , call or e-mail me to discuss.
Most Popular Slideshows
- Australia Bids Adieu to Adam Spencer's Mornings on ABC's "702 Breakfast" Show [PHOTOS]
- Top 10 Hottest Celebrities with Shocking Weight Loss (And Find Out Their Secrets!) [PHOTOS]
- SEE PHOTOS! Eva Longoria Wears No Panties at Cannes 2013, Revealed in Embarrassing Wardrobe Malfunction [SLIDESHOW]
- Demi Lovato Snapped Getting Flirty with The X-Factor Boss, Simon Cowell? [PHOTOS]