Bell FX Currency Outlook: The Australian Dollar has managed to maintain levels close to USD 1.0500 following a mixed night in the markets.
Looking to Australia today, we have the Wage Price Index (WPI) released at 11:30AEST and it is expected that growth will have moderated in Q2. This would be consistent with the moderation in the NAB business survey measure of wages growth
Australia: After essentially trading north of USD1.0500 during the last few days, the AUD dipped convincingly below that level overnight, which has vindicated the believers who feel one of the main reasons for the recent rally had been expectations for easing monetary conditions around the globe.
Throw into the mix the economic contraction, as expected, in the Euro Zone for Q2 GDP announced last night, and it's starting to feel as if the AUD may give back recent gains.
There is real evidence of a slowing global cycle and lower commodity prices so "surely" the AUD will soften up.
In a bit of a twist, the NAB has spoken up regarding rates to remain on hold in Australia unless conditions deteriorate more.
Looking to Australia today, we have the Wage Price Index (WPI) released at 11:30AEST and it is expected that growth will have moderated in Q2.
This would be consistent with the moderation in the NAB business survey measure of wages growth. The Westpac consumer confidence index is also released at 11:30AEST and will be keenly watched. Then overnight there'll be focus on the BoE minutes,
UK unemployment while the data flow continues in the US with the CPI, Empire State Manufacturing, national industrial production and the NAHB Housing index.
Majors: European equities rose while European sovereign bond spreads narrowed further. Major bourses in the US were little changed, despite the stronger-than-anticipated retail sales data, although bond markets reacted more strongly as the data weighed on expectations of additional QE from the Federal Reserve.
As stated above, aggregate Euro Zone Q2 GDP was in line and showed slight contraction. German economic activity recorded growth. French economic activity was flat for the third consecutive quarter and it came as no surprise that results from peripheral countries were much worse.
The economies of Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Spain all contracted further. At present, it appears unlikely that the second half of the year will show much (if any) improvement on the first. In a welcome sign across the Atlantic, US retail sales were stronger than expected in July with growth relatively broad-based across categories, though June was revised lower.
15 AUGUST AUS Westpac Consumer Confidence Aug
AUS Wage Cost Index 2Q
US CPI Jul
UK BoE Minutes
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