Bell FX Currency Outlook: The Australian Dollar maintained its levels above USD 1.0500 overnight in what was a listless and quiet session with little news or data flow.
As one of Australia's leading trade partners, the slowdown in the Japanese economy has made an impact on Australian exports in almost a year.
Australia: The AUD and NZD were both weaker as a result of short covering of the EUR against the G10 currencies dominated FX flows.
There was no fundamental news or data of significance. The markets seem to be looking ahead to major US data releases this week, as well as Fed chairman Bernanke's speech at the Jackson Hole symposium later in the month. Equities were soft in the major economies and US Treasuries were sold at the long end of their yield curve (as were 'safe haven' European bonds).
Greece announced GDP contracted a whopping 6.2% annualised with the recession continuing to make implementation of fiscal
austerity measures difficult.
The markets are leaning towards a lower AUD and it may well "re-correlate" with weaker commodity prices and indicators of the global industrial cycle.
This makes inherent sense to all but that is always a danger we suppose. We know the wave of capital flows into the AUD has boosted it lately, but this seems a finite scenario with the ECB now apparently behind peripheral bond markets and the pressure off the EUR.
Today we have the July NAB Survey released at 11:30am AEST, remembering that in June, business conditions and business confidence were below their longer term averages.
The market will also be awaiting July's Australian motor vehicle sales data and RBA's Mark Chambers speaking at a conference (from the Bank's Market Stability section).
Majors: The EUR gained in what was a pretty quiet night in the currencies. Oil prices were little changed in choppy overnight trade, with any price rises through the session checked by fears of a slowing global economy.
Brent was flat at USD 113.6 per barrel, while WTI futures fell 0.5% to USD 92.84 per barrel. Spot gold prices fell slightly on lingering concerns that central banks will not take further stimulatory policy action.
Spot gold ended 0.8% lower at USD1,612 per ounce. Our major trading partner Japan released their growth rate and announced it had slowed through the middle of the year. The slowdown came from much softer growth in domestic demand and a worsening real trade balance from the slowdown in Japanese export markets.
Sluggish growth lies ahead for the Japanese economy. Tonight sees the Greek Debt Management Agency auctioning short-term Treasury bills. Italy also has a bond tender tonight after issuing T bills overnight.
On the data front watch for Euro-zone GDP while in the US, the major focus will be on the July retail sales report and
the NFIB Small Business index, all closely watched by the market.
14 AUGUST NZ Retail Sales 2Q
AU New Motor Vehicle Sales
AU Nab Business Confidence
US Advance Retail Sales
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