Bell FX Currency Outlook: The Australian Dollar is slightly stronger this morning after the USD lost ground following some weaker than expected Retail Sales data in the US, as well as a downgrade in global growth forecasts by the IMF.
Federal Reserve Bank of New York President William Dudley doubts the U.S. economic recovery can be sustained throughout 2012.
Australia: Overnight saw the International Monetary Fund cut its global growth outlook, warning that the economic slowdown could accelerate if policy makers failed to take stronger action. While the adjustment to the growth on a global scale was minimal, with 2012 growth down 0.1% to 3.5%, and in 2013 the forecast is for global growth to come in at 3.9%, down from 4.1% as previously expected; specific countries downgrades were more noticeable.
Spain's 2013 growth forecast was cut 0.7% to - 1.5% and other regions such as the UK and India were also given significant cuts.
During our local trading session today we have the release of the RBA minutes from last month's interest rate decision. While the cash rate was left steady at 3.5%, many investors will be paying close attention to the statement released today for further direction on when we can expect the next rate cut.
With local CPI data due out in late July, it will be interesting to see whether this gets a mention in the minutes today and if it will play a part in the RBA's mind at the next meeting. Although as the statement following the decision on July 3 indicated, it seems that the RBA is happy to sit back and gauge the effect of the easing seen over the first half of this year.
We don't expect that the release will have too much of an effect on the AUD today, with it looking to announcements during tonight's offshore session.
Majors: As mentioned previously, the US Retail Sales data was released overnight and disappointed markets with the third consecutive fall. Markets were expecting a gain of 0.2% for the month of June, but instead posted a fall of 0.5%.
The last time retail sales fell three months in a row was in late 2008 when the US economy was heading into a recession. This will make tonight's Monetary Policy Report to the Senate by Ben Bernanke all the more important as markets look for some clarity on what it will take for the Fed to resume some form of quantitative easing. Also out tonight is the US CPI and Industrial Production data for June.
17 JULY AU Reserve Bank July Minutes
AU New Motor Vehicle Sales
US Industrial Production
US Fed's Bernanke Delivers Monetary Policy Report
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