Australian Dollar Outlook - 07/11/2012

Bell FX Currency Outlook: The Australian Dollar has opened fairly unchanged this morning after trading to a high of USD1.0245 overnight during the European session.

Australia: The AUD and European equity markets were well supported on news that the Euro Group finance ministers had made some progress, agreeing to provide EUR30bn of the total EUR100bn bail-out money for Spanish banks by the end of July.

The Euro group also announced that they will give the Spanish Government a more time on meeting the deficit targets; which saw both Spanish and Italian bond yields retreat their highs.

Yesterday during our local trading session we had the NAB business survey for June released, with business confidence weaker, down -3 (from -2 in the previous month) despite the recent interest rate cuts by the RBA.

Business conditions however posted a positive result, up from -4 to -1. The Chinese trade balance data came in at US$31.7bn for June, up from $18.7bn previously.

While this is a positive figure, the import growth for the region slowed, which saw local mining stocks weaken as concerns about the demand continue to spook investors. Base metals ended the session lower with copper down 0.9% and nickel down 2.1%.

Gold is trading at US$1,567.00 down 0.7% and oil is down 2.2% at US$84.07. Today will see the RBA's board member Lowe speaking at 9.00am (AEST) while at 10.30am is the release of the Westpac Consumer Confidence data followed by the Australian Home Loans data at 11.30am.

We expect the AUD to continue to remain in a tight trading range today.

Majors: US equity markets finished lower again overnight with the DOW down 0.7%, the Nasdaq down 1.0% and the S&P down 0.8%. The US company reporting season started yesterday and Alcoa set the mood.

While their profits came in lower, it was not as much as the markets were expecting. Weak sales projections and profit earnings at AMD and Research in Motion saw equities finish the session lower.

On the data front the US Small Business Optimism was down to 91.4 in June from 94.4 the previous month. The UK Industrial Production came in up 1.0%, which was better than the market expectations, but the figure is still down 3.5% for the year.
Economic Calendar
11 JULY AU RBA's Lowe gives speech to Economists' Conference
AU Westpac Consumer Confidence JUL
US Trade Balance MAY

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