All Eyes On EU Summit, Housing and Manufacturing Data: Economic Events For June 25-29
By Moran Zhang | June 25, 2012 9:01 PM EST
The European Council's June 28-29 meeting will no doubt be the main focus of this week as some hope that new steps can be taken to grapple with the region's debt crisis.
European leaders are scheduled to discuss specific steps towards a cross-border banking union, closer fiscal integration and the possibility of a debt redemption fund.
However, while traders anxiously await the summit, news came that both Greece's new prime minister and finance minister will miss the summit because of illness. Greece's new Prime Minister Antonis Samaras underwent eye surgery on Saturday and Vassilis Rapanos is in hospital after suffering from nausea before he could be sworn in as finance minister.
Aside from the European Union summit in Brussels, the other main event will be the German parliamentary vote to approve the European Stability Mechanism and Fiscal Pact. Ratification is widely expected. On the data release front, the highlights are the euro-area Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) survey, the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) inflation and M3 supply.
In the U.S., this week ahead will feature housing data, consumer confidence surveys and regional manufacturing surveys. Also, the Supreme Court is expected to rule on President Obama's healthcare law.
A series of housing data will be released over the course of this week, including: Monday's new home sales, Tuesday's S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city home price index and Wednesday's pending home sales.
After witnessing a plunge in both the New York Federal Reserve's Empire manufacturing index and the Philadelphia Fed's manufacturing index in June, investors will be closely monitoring factory activities in other regions: including the Dallas Fed's manufacturing survey on Monday, the Richmond Fed's manufacturing survey on Tuesday, the Chicago Fed's Midwest manufacturing index on Wednesday and the Kansas City Fed's manufacturing composite index on Thursday. Friday's Chicago purchasing managers index (PMI) will also be in focus as it has the highest correlation with the national Institute of Supply Managers (ISM) index.
Other notable data points in the U.S. include: durable goods reports, June consumer confidence reports by the Conference Board and the University of Michigan and the final reading on U.S. first-quarter gross domestic product (GDP).
Elsewhere, the central banks of Israel, Hungary, Romania, the Czech Republic and Colombia will decide on their policy rates. Chile's central bank will release the minutes of its meeting.
Below are entries on the economic calendar from June 25 to June 29. All listed times are EDT.
8:30 a.m. -- The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) for May.
10:00 a.m. -- Data on the new homes market have been mixed of late. While housing starts fell in May, building permits surged higher and homebuilder confidence rose to a three-and-a-half year high in June. On balance, economists are expecting new home sales to rise to a 346,000-unit annual rate in May, slightly higher than April's 343,000-unit annual rate.
10:30 a.m. -- The Dallas Fed's manufacturing survey for June.
3:30 p.m. -- Treasury auctions 13-week and 26-week bonds.
E17 - European Central Bank Board Member Joerg Asmussen to give speech on "Stability Guardians and Crisis Managers: Central Banking in the Crisis and Beyond" at Goethe University.
Germany - ECB Governing Council member Jens Weidmann to participate in a panel discussion organized by Spiegel and Koerber Foundation.
Germany -- GfK consumer confidence for July.
Netherlands -- Dutch Senate to discuss the euro zone's permanent bailout fund European Stability Mechanism (ESM).
Greece -- Inspectors from the International Monetary Fund, the European Central Bank and the European Commission are expected to return to Athens to review reform progress and prepare ground for an update of the terms of the Greek bailout.
Italy -- Italian Deputy Economy Minister Vittorio Grilli attends round-table discussion on "Philanthropy in financial crisis era."
Spain -- Spanish Economy Minister, Luis de Guindos, and chairman of Spanish bank BBVA, Francisco Gonzalez, to speak at Universidad Menendez Pelayo.
Switzerland - World Trade Organization (WTO) dispute settlement body meeting.
TBA -- The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) launches economic survey of U.S.
9:00 a.m. -- Economists expect the S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city home price index to show a 0.4 percent month-over-month increase in April, following a 0.1 percent increase in March. Compared with the same year-ago period, the index is expected to show a 2.5 percent decline in April, the fourth straight month of improvement.
10:00 a.m. -- The Conference Board consumer confidence index may have dipped further in June, to 63.8 from 64.9 in May. Although gasoline prices have maintained their downward trend, the overall economic recovery seems to be running out of steam. Jobless claims have risen above 380,000 in the first three weeks of June. The deepening euro zone crisis has led equity prices to reverse nearly half of the rally seen in the three months to April. Meanwhile, the uncertainties of the impending fiscal cliff are also weighing on consumer confidence.
10:00 a.m. -- The Richmond Fed's regional manufacturing survey for June.
10:30 a.m. -- The Dallas Fed Services activity index for June.
3:30 p.m. -- Treasury auctions 4-week and 52-week bonds.
5:00 p.m. -- Treasury auctions 2-year notes.
Spain - May budget balance.
France - June consumer confidence index.
Netherlands - Second estimate of Q1 GDP.
Italy - April retail sales an May hourly wages.
U.K. - May public sector net borrowing (PSNB).
U.K. -- World Banking and Finance Summit 2012 (to June 27).
Germany & France -- German Finance Minister Schaeuble presents keynote speech at economic policy event at French Embassy in Berlin.
Australia - Reserve Bank of Australia Assistant Governor Guy Debelle attends panel discussion at the Mortgage and Finance Association of Australia (MFAA).
7:00 a.m. -- Mortgage Bankers Association's mortgage applications survey for the week ending June 23.
8:30 a.m. -- The durable goods orders data for May are unlikely to generate much confidence in the health of the U.S. economy. Aircraft orders have weakened in recent months. Economists are looking for durable goods orders to increase by 0.5 percent in May. Excluding the volatile transportation orders, the so-called core orders are expected to have risen 0.8 percent.
8:30 a.m. -- The Chicago Fed Midwest Manufacturing Index (CFMMI) for May.
10:00 a.m. - Pending home sales should have risen by one percent in May, after a 5.5 percent decline in April.
11:30 a.m. -- Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Charles Evans (FOMC non-voter) holds small-group interview on the economy with wire reporters.
5:00 p.m. -- Treasury auctions 5-year notes.
Italy - June business confidence.
U.K. -- May BBA loan approvals for house purchases.
Ireland - Q1 GDP.
Germany -The HICP inflation for June, first estimate.
Germany - June consumer price index, first estimate.
Germany -- Chancellor Merkel presents opening speech at a Christian Democratic Union (CDU) event in Berlin.
E17 -- Italy Prime Minister Monti, Head of Eurogroup Juncker speak at a conference in Brussels.
TBA -- Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland holds Community Development Policy Summit: Housing, Human Capital, and Inequality (to June 29).
8:30 a.m. - The final first-quarter GDP report is expected to show no change from the previous estimate of 1.9 percent.
8:30 a.m. - Revision to first-quarter corporate profits.
8:30 a.m. - Initial jobless claims for the week ending June 23 are expected to edge down slightly to 385,000, from 387,000 in the prior week.
11:00 a.m. -- The Kansas City Fed's manufacturing composite index for June.
12:15 p.m. -- Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Sandra Pianalto (FOMC voter) speaks on "Policies that Can Drive Improved Outcomes for the Residents, Communities, and Regions of the Fourth Federal Reserve District" before the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Community Development Policy Summit: Housing, Human Capital, and Inequality.
5:00 p.m. -- Treasury auctions 7-year notes.
7:00 p.m. -- Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Richard Fisher (FOMC non-voter) speaks on "Can the Federal Reserve Stimulate the Economy?" before the 2012 Aspen Ideas Festival.
Belgium -- EU Summit (to June 29).
Switzerland - Jean-Pierre Danthine, member of the Governing Board of the Swiss National, to give speech on "Foreign Exchange Regimes: What can we draw from International Experience?" at SFI Breakfast Seminar.
Switzerland -- European Commission to present quarterly report on the euro area.
Switzerland -- WTO sub-committee on least-developed countries.
Spain -- ECB Vice President Vitor Constancio to present Premio german Bernacer de Economia Monetaria award.
Spain - June HICP inflation, June consumer price index and April housing permits.
Italy - May producer prices, June HICP inflation and June consumer price index.
Italy -- Seminar on "Public Debt, Global Governance and Economic Dynamism", expected attendees include Foreign Affairs Minister Giulio Terzi Di Santagata, Bank of Italy Director General Fabrizio Saccomanni, French Observatory of Economic Situations President Jean-Paul Fitoussi, Economy Ministry Representatives.
Germany - June unemployment rate.
U.K. - Third estimate of Q1 GDP, current account and total business investment.
E17 - June economic sentiment, industrial confidence and consumer confidence.
TBA -- The Dallas Fed's trimmed mean PCE inflation rate for May.
TBA -- Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Eric Rosengren (FOMC non-voter) speaks before the Post-Crisis Banking Conference co-sponsored by the JMCB, the Central Bank of the Netherlands, the European Banking Center, and the University of Kansas School of Business.
TBA -- Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Holds Community Development Policy Summit: Housing, Human Capital, and Inequality (final day).
8:30 a.m. - Personal income will likely rise by 0.2 percent in May, the same pace as in April. Personal consumption is expected to be flat in May, after rising 0.3 percent in April. Much of the spending in April was being fueled by consumers scaling back savings (saving rate fell to 3.4 percent). With the rate of spending continuing to outpace income, much of the pent-up demand has been exhausted. On the inflation front, the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index is likely to rise by 0.2 percent in May.
9:05 a.m. -- Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard (FOMC non-voter) speaks on the U.S. economy and monetary policy before "Dialogue with the Fed" event hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Little Rock Branch.
9:45 a.m. -- The Chicago Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) should come in at 52.9 in June, slightly higher than May's 52.7.
9:55 a.m. - The final reading of the Reuters/University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index is expected to remain unchanged at 74.1 in late June.
10:00 a.m. - June ISM Milwaukee index.
Belgium -- EU Summit (final day).
U.K. -- Bank of England publishes financial stability report for June 2012.
U.K. -- June GfK consumer confidence index.
Germany - Germany's Parliament to vote on the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) and fiscal pact.
Spain - April current account.
France - Second estimate of Q1 GDP.
E17 - May bank loans to private sector and M3 money supply.
E17 - HICP inflation.
Portugal - May industrial production.
Japan - May industrial production.
Source: Central banks, European Commission, Reuters, Market News, Capital Economics, Nomura.
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