Australian Dollar Outlook - 06/22/2012

Bell FX Currency Outlook: The Australian Dollar has taken a nose dive as global markets suffer heavy falls after disappointing economic data from China and Europe weighs on the market.

Australia: The AUD has fallen back to the low of the week and is trading more than one US cent lower this morning. The currency gave back gains seen earlier in the week as a relief rally saw the currency back toward USD1.0200 against the Greenback.

Weak data flow commenced in yesterday's trade, with China's HSBC flash manufacturing PMI weakening in June falling to 48.1 from 48.4, its lowest level in 7 months. We expect the AUD to continue to trend lower today, following weaker equity markets
and commodity prices.

Majors: Following the weaker lead out of the Asian session, European manufacturing PMI also showed signs of retracting falling from 45.1 to 44.8. European equities fell with the German DAX off 0.8% to 6,343 and the FTSE off 1.0% 5,566.

US manufacturing added to a falling market sentiment as the Philly Fed survey printed a significant retraction to -16.6 in June from -5.8 the previous month. Also adding to the negative tone was news that Moody's would downgrade 12 Global banks coming into the NY close.

The S&P 500 closed 2.2% lower at 1,326 whilst the Dow Jones also fell 2.0% to close at 12,574. Oil prices fell sharply following the disappointing US data with WTI futures off 2.7% to USD 78.3 per barrel, whilst Brent futures fell 3.3% to USD 89.3 per barrel. Gold prices also ended the session 2.3% lower at USD1566 an ounce.
Economic Calendar
22 JUNE NZ NBNZ Business Confidence JUN
GE IFO Business Climate JUN
CH MNI June Flash Business Sentiment Survey
CA CPI MAY

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