USD/CHF dropped to as low as 0.9513 last week but was supported above mentioned 0.9499 (38.2% retracement of 0.9041 to 0.9771 at 0.9492 ). Initial bias is neutral this week with focus on 0.9676 minor resistance. Break there will indicate that the pull back from 0.9771 is already finished and recent rally should be ready to resume through 0.9771 to 0.9916 medium term cluster resistance next. Nonetheless, break of 0.9513 will now bring deeper correction back to 61.8% retracement at 0.9320 instead.
In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 0.7065 is still in progress and has resumed. Such rebound is viewed as a correction in the larger down trend and thus, we'd expect strong resistance from 0.9916 resistance (61.8% retracement of 1.1730 to 0.7065 at 0.9948) to limit upside and bring reversal. Though, sustained trading above there will start to argue that whole down trend from 1.8305 (2000 high) has completed and will bring stronger rally through parity to 61.8% projection of 0.7065 to 0.9594 from 0.8930 at 1.0493.
In the longer term picture, long term down trend from 2000 high of 1.8305 is still in favor to resume for another low below 0.7065. However, decisive break of mentioned 0.9916/48 cluster resistance will in raise the odds the such down trend is already completed and would pave the way back to 1.1288/3283 resistance zone.
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