Asian Session Notes 6/04/12

GBPUSD

Resistance: 1.5387 minor / 1.5436 minor / 1.5468 minor

Support: 1.2533 minor / 1.5275 strong / 1.5177(84) moderate

Despite the long tail from Friday and the overall bounce among the majors we have GBPUSD still seeing a bearish bias from the big picture as daily stochastic oscillates around the 20 area while macd still points down with a steady gap between it and the signal line. In intraday charts we are seeing mixed signals with 4H stochastic crossing lower and macd poised to cross up. Hourly indicators are similarly configured with a bearish stochastic and bullish macd. For now we see little sense of immediate direction in Cable though we are looking forward for an eventual bear market.

EURJPY

Resistance: 97.25 moderate / 97.63 minor / 98.06 moderate

Support: 96.51 moderate / 96.17 minor / 95.51 moderate

As with many of the majors EURJPY has a hammer from Friday’s close retracing almost 50% of its sell-off from earlier in the past week. Among indicators we continue to see mixed signals from the daily charts with stochastic coming off oversold levels and still pointing up while daily macd has remained bearish. In the lower time frames we have new signals from the 4H level with stochastic crossing lower unable to push overbought while macd has also crossed up. Hourly indicators for their part as stochastic pushing oversold while macd is poised to cross lower. Absent a break of a support we prefer looking for a rejection from just under 97.25 with stops just above 97.63.

EURUSD

Resistance: 1.2414 minor / 1.2472 strong / 1.2510 moderate

Support: 1.2367 minor / 1.2321 minor / 1.2288 moderate

With the surprisingly poor US jobs numbers Euro managed to see a 50% retracement of the previous weeks sell-off Friday to pull the daily indicators to mixed directions with stochastic coming off oversold levels while macd is still below its signal though is bottoming out. From the lower time frames we are now seeing a bear cross in the 4H stochastic while macd is still pointing up, though candlesticks now indicate a loss of momentum for the bounce. Hourly indicators has stochastic pushing to oversold areas while macd is also topping off. We appear to be slowly building a case for a resumption of the bear market consider sells from just under the immediate minor resistance at 1.2414.

AUDUSD

Resistance: 0.9671 minor / 0.9708 minor / 0.9758 moderate

Support: 0.9622 minor / 0.9561 moderate / 0.9500 moderate

Friday saw a daily Hammer in the end as knee-jerk dumping of the Aussy on poor US jobs data was eventually reversed. Daily indicators show a bullish divergence in stochastic though macd’s are flat below the signal. In the lower time frames we have a confluence of bears in 4H stochastic and macd while hourly charts also has a new bear cross on the latter with stochastic pushing oversold. Note we are seeing a sell-off in Australian equities and just saw a flat read in inflation suggesting a resumption of weakness may be due. Overall bias remains bearish despite the daily candlestick. Consider sells on a close under 0.9622 region though the preferred entry is coming off 0.9671 given that we are already near average daily ranges.

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