USD/JPY's fall from 84.17 accelerated to as low as 77.66 last week. Initial bias remains on the downside this week and deeper decline should be seen to 75.56/76.02 support zone. At this point, fall from 84.17 is not displaying a clear impulsive structure yet and thus we'll be cautious bottoming inside 75.56/76.02 support zone. On the upside, above 78.70 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring consolidation. But break of 80.29 resistance is needed to signal near term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish even in case of recovery.
In the bigger picture, there is no sign of trend reversal in USD/JPY yet and the whole down trend from 124.13 (2007 high) is still in progress. The question is whether price actions from 75.56 was a correction that's completed at 84.17, or a multi leg consolidation pattern. Based on the bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD, we'd slightly favor the latter case and hence, another rebound would be mildly is favor after getting support from 75.56 again. Though, sustained break of 75.56 will pave the way to 70 psychological level next.
In the long term picture, with 85.51 resistance intact, there is no scope for trend reversal yet. Though, some more consolidative trading would be seen in medium term above 75.56 first before the long term down trend from 124.13 eventually resumes to 70 psychological level.
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